Let’s see where the attendees of Manifest 2025 get off the Doom Train, and whether I can convince them to stay on and ride with me to the end of the line! 00:00 Introduction to Doom Debates 03:21 What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 05:03 🚂 “AGI Isn't Coming Soon” 08:37 🚂 “AI Can't Surpass Human Intelligence” 12:20 🚂 “AI Won't Be a Physical Threat” 13:39 🚂 “Intelligence Yields Moral Goodness” 17:21 🚂 “Safe AI Development Process” 17:38 🚂 “AI Capabilities Will Rise at a Manageable Pace” 20:12 🚂 “AI Won't Try to Conquer the Universe” 25:00 🚂 “Superalignment Is A Tractable Problem” 28:58 🚂 “Once We Solve Superalignment, We’ll Enjoy Peace” 31:51 🚂 “Unaligned ASI Will Spare Us” 36:40 🚂 “AI Doomerism Is Bad Epistemology” 40:11 Bonus 🚂: “Fine, P(Doom) is high… but that’s ok!” 42:45 Recapping the Debate See also my previous episode explaining the Doom Train: https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/poking-holes-in-the-ai-doom-argument Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide , the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel! Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
