Stanislav Krapivnik: Russia & Iran Just Crossed a Line

Analysis of Ukraine's deteriorating battlefield position as offensives shrink yearly due to manpower/equipment shortages. Zaporozhye identified as critical weak point where Ukrainian defenses may collapse. Western involvement deeper than acknowledged—Americans/Europeans directly operating HIMARS, Patriots and other systems. Russian military transformed into world's most combat-experienced force with effective rotation systems and volunteer recruitment, while Ukraine faces mass desertions. Economically, Russia functions as self-sufficient manufacturing power while Europe cut itself off from critical supply chains it cannot replace. On Iran: US/Israel lack capacity to destroy Iran militarily despite regional buildup; Iranian defenses bolstered by Russian S-300/400 systems and Chinese support. Strait of Hormuz closure would trigger global supply shock—not price spike—potentially collapsing European economies entirely.

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