FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction

🤗 Upvotes: 47 | cs.AI, cs.LG

Authors:
Zhiyuan Zeng, Jiashuo Liu, Siyuan Chen, Tianci He, Yali Liao, Jinpeng Wang, Zaiyuan Wang, Yang Yang, Lingyue Yin, Mingren Yin, Zhenwei Zhu, Tianle Cai, Zehui Chen, Jiecao Chen, Yantao Du, Xiang Gao, Jiacheng Guo, Liang Hu, Jianpeng Jiao, Xiangsheng Li, Jingkai Liu, Shuang Ni, Zhoufutu Wen, Ge Zhang, Kaiyuan Zhang, Xin Zhou, Jose Blanchet, Xipeng Qiu, Mengdi Wang, Wenhao Huang

Title:
FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction

Arxiv:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2508.11987v2

Abstract:
Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce $\textbf{FutureX}$, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.