The Iran Trap_ How Foreign Policy is Rewriting the Midterm Map

When the conflict with Iran first broke out, there was a quiet, almost cynical assumption among some in the Republican camp that a wartime footing would rally the country and provide an electoral dividend heading into the 2026 midterms. Five months later, that calculation has not just failed; it has curdled. Instead of a swift victory, we are looking at a protracted entanglement that is actively dismantling the party’s strongest talking point: the economy. The math is becoming impossible to ignore as rising energy costs and persistent inflation turn the focus of the average voter away from security concerns and straight toward the checkout counter and the gas pump. It is hard to sell a narrative of fiscal responsibility when the geopolitical reality is driving up the cost of everyday life. This economic strain is compounded by a deep, systemic dissatisfaction with how the conflict is being handled.

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