$1.5 Trillion USD Green Investment Gap, Competition vs. China Industrial Policy and Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Viability with Gita Sjahrir - E413

Gita Sjahrir, Head of Investment at BNI Ventures, and Jeremy Au talked about three main themes:

1. $1.5 Trillion USD Green Investment Gap: Jeremy and Gita agreed with Bain & Company’s report that Southeast Asia is "woefully off track" on green investments to reduce emissions and needs new policies and financial mechanisms to help bridge the gap. They discussed the significant costs associated with transitioning to green energy, e.g. retiring a single coal-fired power plant would cost over several hundred million dollars. They discussed Indonesia's ambitious goal and challenging execution to shift to a zero-carbon electricity grid by 2060, serving a population with a current GDP per capita of around $5,000 USD. They also discussed how high interest rates negatively impact renewable energy investments, vs. the prior era of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).

2. Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Viability: Southeast Asia is the 7th largest automotive manufacturing hub globally, producing approximately 3.5 million vehicles in 2021, led by Thailand (1.6 million vehicles), followed by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. They debated the feasibility of transitioning these capabilities to EV manufacturing, noting the significant challenges in creating a fully functional EV manufacturing ecosystem. They also touched on Indonesia's strategy to leverage their asset of having the world's largest nickel reserves to foster a complete battery supply chain.

3. Competition vs. China Industrial Policy: Jeremy and Gita covered China's formidable manufacturing policy stack (land rights, subsidies, education, worker rights, currency) for their nexus of steel, solar, nuclear, manufacturing, semiconductor and EV industries. They discussed the new Chinese approach to export not just goods, but also their manufacturing value chains, into Southeast Asian markets, and the appropriate competition vs. partnership by local manufacturers. They also debated how startups like Sleek and Dat Bike should position themselves strategically in terms of production vs. sales vs. fundraising.

Jeremy and Gita also talked about public health benefits from decreased air pollution, upcoming market consolidation in the EV industry, and the necessity of a multi-decade policy approach in solving sustainable energy transition challenges.

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