Nuclear First Strike: Consequences of a Broken Taboo

Explores the potential consequences of a nuclear first strike, an event that has not occurred since 1945, which has led to a "nuclear taboo." It considers various scenarios of nuclear escalation, categorizing them by factors like ambiguity of use, collateral damage, and the perpetrator's identity, including states and non-state actors like terrorists. The analysis further discusses likely global and American popular reactions, ranging from preemptive surrender to resolute intervention, and evaluates appropriate United States policy responses, such as maintaining deterrence, shaping international law, and adjusting arms control strategies. Ultimately, the text emphasizes the uniqueness and persistent threat of nuclear weapons while acknowledging the fragility and potential reinforcement of the nuclear taboo.

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