GDP, UAW, Morgan Stanley, and UPS

Vince Cignarella, macro strategist with Bloomberg News, joins to discuss markets and eco outlook post 3Q GDP. Keith Naughton, reporter with Bloomberg News in Detroit, joins to discuss the latest on the UAW Strike. Bloomberg's Sonali Basak interviews Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman and CEO-to-be Ted Pick. Jen Flitton, Head of US Government Affairs at Invesco, joins to discuss the latest on Mike Johnson being elected House Speaker and a potential government shutdown. Lee Klaskow, Senior Transportation and Logistics Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, breaks down UPS earnings. Max Chafkin, columnist with Bloomberg Businessweek, discusses Sam Bankman-Fried testifying in the FTX fraud trial. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.

Full Transcript:
Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I'm going to get to these markets here. The store's been. It feels to this simple investor over here that the interest rates out there in the marketplace have really been impacting stocks. And that's my take. Vince Signorella, he joins us. He's a pro global macro strategist for Bloomberg News. New knee or just a repaired knee replacement replace harsh, replacing the He's walking just fine. He found his way into the Bloomberg and Director Broker studio. We left from crumbs out for him. Vince, what do you make of these markets here? Uh? You know, the equity market's looking really sick. I mean if you look at longer term charts, sick as in bed like the kids say, look ill, not like beastie boys ill, but like unwell unwell. Yes, there's a level to watch it around forty one to fifty. It's a TD sequential level. If that breaks, it actually opens up a major move down of four thousand. We're looking at a potential major move lower inequity markets if these levels don't hold, and we're gonna need to see some help from probably Amazon and the like going forward to lift this higher, because it's not going to come from interest rights. I look, Abigail, do little yesterday it showed me. Oh y no, no, not rs high. That is back. That is awesome. Look at the rs I for SPX. We are right there. You buy him right here, unless, as you say, it breaks through that little green lines colors and everything. Get me a break. I'll tell you what, though it did. It did move below the two hundred the SMP move below the two hundred day moving average, and the last time we've seen it that blow you know, in that in those terms, was March, and it's well below the two hundred day, which is around forty two to thirty five, so we're well below that. So forty one seventy interestingly enough, is the average closing price for the last year, So between this forty one fifty forty one seventy level. I'd love to see it hold and maybe catch a bid, but so far it's looking a little bit of a dead cat bounce here. If I see rates up, as Paul said, you know, rates have been a huge driver. I feel like if I see rates up, if I see dollar strength, if I see oil up, that's all bad for equities, right yeah, yeah, And you know what rates aren't really there's not much of an infinite impetus for rates to go substantially lower. You know, we need to see really super low inflation numbers to turn rates at the moment. You know, we're saying a little bit of a reprieve in the treasury market. You know, Acman's trade helped a little bit. It got some Americans want to buy treasures, but who else? Pretty much there is Japanese foreign buyers. They don't want to hold this paper. No, no, what else are you gonna buy? Well, yeah, that's actually a good point though, But the upside for it, you know, you're just buying if you're yield, you're not looking at for a capital. Well, it's the first time in almost a generation you could get yield. Oh no, I mean a lot of people loving and you're looking at see these at five and a half percent. I mean, that's these are great rates, especially for fixed income or or seniors on a on a fixed income. A lot of folks out there doing that. I mean I've done a little bit myself. I'm kind of a senior actually these days. But you know, I mean I could see rates staying here. You know, I'm not really going down a lot, not really going up a lot. But that's not going to help the equity market. It's going to need it from somewhere else. So when a guy like Bill Ackman says I closed my short in the treasury markets, a does that mean anything to pros out there? Is not just a name, And if you think about it, the size of his fund it was like a one percent game. So he was long too, right, wasn't he talking about a thirty year Yeah? Yeah, yeah, but he had a one percent gain on the assets under management. I mean he wasn't the only bill. You know Bill Gross also what is he long or short? Going long treasuries? Now? Well, so's Warren Buffet closing short at least? Yeah? Okay, yeah, you know they put a position on a Monday and tell you on Wednesday what they did. So you'll goin in and money do those names. The other day, our producer Eric Molo, he had a mask on and I said, hey, dude, where's Tonto. He had no idea what I was talking about, and I was I said, you know what, like the Lone Ranger? And he was like, no, sorry, don't get it. He did not know who the Lone Ranger was. And do these kids today do they know Bill Gross? Do they know Warren Buffett? Like in a real way? I mean, you know the program the the Algo programmers do because they take those names and they program it into their into their trading venues. But you know, actually, the only iconic name from from that era that is actually incredibly well known Lassie. Everyone knows who Lassie is. This is not in the markets, yeah, well, in the world in general, yeah, markets I mean, but yeah, I mean in the all the years I trade. Do you think Eric Molo knows who Lassie was? I think so we'll have to test him on the way out, check him out. All right, what's the most interesting trade for you out there? Just in the markets? I know, you look at currency, stocks, bonds, all kinds of stuff out there. What are you looking at it to me? You know, going back to interest rates, I still like the short term. I still like two year treasuries. I mean, that's the one that's really going to catch a bid when the FED decides to turn or the FED says I stopped because you could, you would more likely than not see the yield curve steepend if inflation expectations remain, that's not going to affect the short end as much. So if you see steepening, it's going to be a sell off in the back end. I think the short end is the place to be because inevitably that's got to come your way the FED. You know, Matt's been telling me not to crowd into that two year because I gonna have an interest rate risk reinvestment reinvestments. Now the thirty year five point zero seven, you were right negative by I'm not saying, first of all, I don't give investment advice. I loaded up on them, and if I do, you should run the other direction. But no, I'm not saying you wa