Show full transcript 0:54 Final pricing depends upon program selection. 0:56 Meet Tom, because this is radio, you can't see that Tom has eczema. 1:00 And you can't see that Tom is at a couple's massage with his wife, Susan. 1:05 You see, Tom is on duplexant duplimap. 1:07 It helps adults like Tom control their moderate to severe eczema when prescription topicals 1:12 aren't enough. 1:14 And because this is radio, you can't see Tom's clear skin. 1:18 You can't see how he's itching less, and you can't see how Tom is staying ahead 1:22 of his eczema. 1:24 DoPixant helps heal your skin from within by helping block a key source of inflammation inside the body that can cause eczema. 1:30 Severe allergic reactions, including skin reactions, can occur. Get help right away for face, mouth, tongue, or throat swelling, 1:36 wheezing, or trouble breathing. Tell your doctor right away of new or worsening eye problems like eye pain or vision changes, 1:41 skin symptoms, joint aches, and pain, or a parasitic infection. Don't change or stop other treatments without talking to your doctor. 1:46 Tom, the cucumbers are for your eyes. 1:49 Oh. 1:49 Dupixant helps you feel the heal. 1:52 Talk to your eczema specialist, visit dupixant.com 1:54 or call 1-844-Dupixant. 1:57 Lisa, tell them about our new show. 1:59 We have a new podcast. 2:01 It's called Don't Lie to Me. 2:02 I'm Lexie Iwanu. 2:03 We're two best friends, 22 years apart, 2:06 but so close at heart. 2:07 And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, 2:09 which means we have wildly different references, 2:12 occasionally different opinions, 2:13 and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. 2:16 Now in my thirties being the founder of new shoes good taste is my business 2:21 Listen on the iHeart radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts 2:28 I'm lacey Moseley author actor stand-up comedian creator and host of scam goddess podcast the true crime comedy podcast 2:35 All about robbery fraud and those who practice it each week. I bring on an amazing guest. Oh, I scammed them 2:41 What I could talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper like me 2:45 That's why I had to make yapping a job. 2:47 And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. 2:50 Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeart radio app, apple podcast, or wherever you 2:55 get your podcasts. 2:58 There are thousands of podcasts that can tell you how to better yourself. 3:03 Get Worse with Kyle Pru is not one of those podcasts. 3:06 So if you're interested in getting thinner, going to therapy, starting peptide, setting 3:09 boundaries, taking supplements, making your better, getting closure, then I would 3:13 humbly recommend other podcasts. 3:15 If you're interested in blackmail, love-bomb, and cloning yourself or getting revenge, then 3:19 we've got a little something-something for a dastardly individual like you. 3:23 Listen to Get Worse with Kyle Pru on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever 3:27 you get your podcasts. 3:29 The Big Bets on Campus Podcast. 3:32 Podcast. 3:33 Podcast. 3:34 All right. 3:34 Here we go. 3:42 3540. 3:43 4550. 4:18 Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, presented by DraftKings. 4:20 This is the week seven college football betting preview. I'm stuck enjoying me as always my fellow BBOC co-host Collin Wilson 4:29 Week seven so it's only fitting. We're gonna do seven marquee match-ups all 4:36 14 of the teams in the marquee match-ups 4:39 You could argue are power rated in the top 20 nationally when fully healthy some injuries that we will get to 4:47 with some of the games, but an amazing weekend and you're talking 4:52 starting things off right off the bat with Ohio State Indiana in a top five matchup 4:58 And we're going all the way 5:01 until two three in the morning 5:04 We had even have a Nebraska 5:07 Oregon game that got 5:10 booted 5:11 to 5:12 the 5:13 What is it the big 10 network and to the big 10 network that got it channel in the 600s on my direct TV stream 5:19 Yeah, they got the big and they got the big the fox. I'm sorry the fox a lot their own fox 5:25 That's a 11 Eastern kick. We got Nebraska, Oregon 5:29 Things are so good this weekend 5:31 that 5:33 Ole Miss, Missouri with storylines galore 5:36 SEC Network game, that's all good. We have it this week 5:42 Well, hopefully we get Petros Papadega is calling our 11 p.m. game 5:45 I there's nothing like going to bed listen to him on Fox. So I miss the pack 12 5:50 Yeah 12 games them calling it before we get into the games here big news looks 5:55 like College football plough next year is going to expand the 24 game 24 teams 6:00 I'll give you my hot take on it. This is a betting podcast. I hate it for 6:06 betting because it's going to ruin the bowls and the bowls are some of the best 6:12 betting opportunities of the entire sports calendar. 6:14 If you put in the work, it's not easy, but there are some inefficient lines. 6:18 You can get news motivation. 6:20 We can just blindly bet service academies. 6:23 You're going to get a 10 point move in a college football playoff bowl game. 6:27 No, but you will, you know, like what was that West Virginia Syracuse one 6:31 that one year? 6:32 We had a 10 point line move. 6:33 Like you're not going to get that a playoff game. 6:34 I'm still mad about my I think it was 6:40 Who was was it army? 6:44 Army against Marshall I 6:46 Forget it moved like 14 12 points for them are about two goats here cuz 6:51 Marshall for a while was I think six seven eight straight covering bowls 6:55 I mean they're just said and armies the goat of bulls so so that sucks to me 6:59 It does cheap in the regular season a bit 7:01 I mean, we've got 14 SEC teams in in a couple years. 7:06 Like, that's insane. 7:08 And it does cheapen the season a bit 7:10 from a betting perspective, season might be some more spots. 7:14 Right. So you can catch some. 7:16 So like that, I always look at both both sides of it. 7:19 But I'm not a fan, like we are trending towards 7:25 a that a growing gap in college football. 7:30 There's an evening at the top and then a growing gap so there's like 10 to there's like 10 to 7:38 15 teams 7:39 That are worthy of cultural plough and really there's like this year 7:42 I think there's like seven or eight that can win a national title like that. We don't need 24 in but 7:49 Reading money. I liked your response to my tweet though because what I did is like obviously the first round game is going to be something like 7:56 Number, I don't know how many buys are given out, but it's going to be like the 24th seed versus what the 12th seed? 8:01 So I went up and just looked at someone in my power ratings around 15th 8:04 Pulled out Tennessee and then who would I like from the group of six? 8:07 I pulled out Oregon State and just made the tweet like do we really need a Tennessee Oregon State game? 8:11 To determine who's gonna play for the national title, but you said oh Oregon State now 8:15 I'm in which I agree like I mean that it would be fun to see them win some games 8:18 But I think stuck where I get tripped up and what I don't like about this is 8:22 FCS has already based a model for a couple of decades that has shown us that if you give home 8:29 games, first round, second round, quarters, whatever, right, the FCS home teams absolutely 8:35 dominate. So what's the format? And like, are these going to be home games? Are we going to use 8:40 the R&L Carriers Bowl for the first round? Or like, are the subsequent bowls going to play 8:45 a part? Like when you get into the next round, because if this is all home teams, 8:49 And it follows the fcs format 8:51 You might as well just take the top seas to win the national title because nobody in fcs is winning on the road 8:56 It's funny. I have I just looked at my power ratings 9:00 Ten of my top 21 are sec teams like that's you're gonna have you're gonna double-digit sec teams 9:07 and 9:08 It's just gonna be all sec big 10 independent and you're like it's it's crazy 9:12 Hopefully it leads to more scheduled better games in the noncon because teams aren't as afraid of losses 9:19 that could be a silver lining as well. But we're going to watch regardless. We're going to bet, 9:23 find winners regardless. We're going to be here with you regardless. So let's, and that's next year. 9:29 Who doesn't want to lose an under in the potato bowl because Northern Illinois went to overtime? 9:33 Who doesn't want that thing? Guys, no. Yeah, that was all those missed field goals. Oh my God. 9:38 All right. Anyway, let's get into the marquee games. It's another fabulous weekend of 9:43 college football. Let's check out the marquee matchups will all end up betting. 9:49 for week seven. 9:50 Let's start with the big one. 9:54 Ohio State, Indiana, biggest home game 9:59 in Indiana's program history. 10:02 I think it's fair to say. 10:04 A rematch of last year's Big 10 championship game. 10:08 This game will kick off at 12.15 Eastern, not noon 10:13 on Fox, Indiana, is a three and a half point 10:18 underdog, total's 50 and a half. 10:20 We had our first bad week of agrees on the board. 10:23 Let's have a week now. 10:25 Are we kicking, before we break this game down, 10:27 are we putting Indiana plus three and a half on there? 10:28 It's the first bet I put out this weekend, on Sunday. 10:30 It was the first bet I put out there. 10:32 I mean, that and the under. 10:34 Yeah, this line is, you're giving me sick 10:37 with the hook at home. 10:39 Give me a fucking break. 10:42 Ohio State could win and cover, 10:44 But yeah, this is like a coin flip game to me. And there are many things to like about 10:52 Indiana here 10:54 Number one. They have the best defensive 10:57 I think the best 10:59 Defensive coordinator in all of college football the best big-game head coach in all of college football 11:04 But oh, how it's also not fully healthy. They're gonna be without their best offensive tackle running that depth and I think that's 11:10 Partially the key to this game. Ohio State has not been running the ball that well 11:16 I mean there are a hundred and twenty-third an explosive run rate and 11:20 What is that going to lead to? 11:22 It's going to lead to third downs in known passing situations 11:26 And what is that going to lead to pressure and how do you stop Jeremiah Smith? 11:32 You don't on the back end 11:33 You get to Julian saying we can't move and 11:37 And I mean under pressure when kept clean 82% completion centers last year 58 when under pressure this year 11:44 It's a 20-plus percent drop as well two big-time throws five Turner worthy plays and 11:49 Sands not mobile think about last year when he stepped up in class end of last year against Miami against Indiana 11:55 He sacked five times through three picks. It was the pressure that collapsed this Ohio State offense 12:02 I think that's gonna happen again. This Indiana defense of front is still a lead against the run 12:08 It's still a lead a generating pressure and I think that's what's gonna collapse this one. Now is Jeremiah Smith still gonna get his 12:14 Yes, he's already arguably might go down as the best wide receiver in college football history 12:18 You could start on many NFL teams right now 12:22 but he got his last year and 12:25 You know, they scored 10 points and they're supporting cast is not as good the tight ender him isn't as good 12:31 The other receivers around him aren't as good. 12:35 The running game right now isn't as good. 12:38 So I think pressure on the Indiana side 12:42 is going to slow down this Ohio State offense. 12:45 On the foot, now I will say that Indiana secondary 12:48 is nowhere close to as good as it was last year. 12:51 They really miss ponds, they really miss Moore 12:53 and they really miss Boykin. 12:55 And they're gonna run a ton of zone. 12:57 There's complex coverages and sims and stunts 13:01 which the Ohio State offensive line is going to have the 10s full, especially not a full strength. 13:05 But the back end isn't as good. They're going to play a lot of zone. 13:07 Jeremiah Smith's going to make some big plays. 13:09 So Indiana, I don't think Indiana is as good as last year. 13:13 They were historically good. There's some things, you know, the back end of the defense 13:16 isn't as good on offense. They're not as efficient. I think the decision making and 13:22 the RPOs from Hoover is they're not as clean and seamless as they were with Mendoza. 13:28 the offensive line from a run blocking perspective without Benson and Cougan. They're just a little 13:33 worse off, but their past protection has been elite. Their receivers are still elite. They're 13:39 also not as good at tight end. But their receivers, I think, are going to have major 13:43 advantages on the outside. You could argue whoever you want, Marshall may be the best 13:48 corner. He's going to be at a size disadvantage. If some others are young or have penalty 13:53 problems there's going to be opportunities for Hoover to hit explosive plays here and this 13:59 Indiana offense where they are better is they're way more explosive 98 percentile explosiveness 14:05 last year they were around 70th so they're not as efficient but they're more explosive 14:09 but I think Ohio State's going to this is what the boils down to me besides the I'll take 14:15 Signeti over anyone I think Ohio State's going to struggle to run the ball it's going to 14:20 lead to known passing situations on late downs. 14:23 That's when Indiana is gonna be able to generate pressure. 14:25 And that's where St. struggles 14:27 and not having him have any mobility is gonna hurt. 14:31 On the flip side, 14:31 I think Indiana is gonna have more success 14:34 running the ball on early downs. 14:37 It's gonna set up fewer known passing situations, 14:41 but when they are in known passing down situations, 14:45 Ohio State's not getting pressure this year. 14:47 And it is a major problem 14:49 And Indiana's limiting pressure and how do you get to Hoover? You have to pressure 14:54 That's when the mistakes come hasn't been making mistakes this year because he hasn't been getting pressured 15:00 I don't think he's gonna get pressured here. So 15:03 Yeah, I mean like the Indiana's top five negative play right on defense, Ohio State is 75th 15:08 Indiana fifth in yards per carry, Ohio State 81st 15:12 So I just think that the pressure from the defensive line is gonna be overwhelming at times from Indiana and not 15:19 So much from Ohio State. Give me the Hoosiers. This is a coin flip game 15:23 I get the revenge angle and all but and I don't think this is closing three and a half the big money on 15:28 Indiana's coming you agree 100% agree echo everything you said and just to add a little bit more because 15:35 I'm pretty heavily invested in this game 15:38 I'm not sure if Indiana can win it, but the three and a half 15:40 I was ready to fire another dime on on four if it would have come 15:44 Look, there is no other wide receiver besides Jeremiah Smith on this Ohio State offense. 15:50 When you go and look at the target share on this team, right, because last year there 15:54 was a touchdown by Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game, but it went to Carnell 15:57 Tate. 15:58 Jeremiah Smith had 144 of Julian Sane's 250 passing yards. 16:02 He got his, but he got caught, tackled at the second level on so many attempts. 16:08 They just didn't let him explode. 16:09 They did not let him have the explosiveness. 16:11 They were sound in their assignments, they didn't miss their tackles, and that's how 16:15 they contained Jeremiah Smith from just dominating them in the end zone. 16:18 I expect that to be the same plan. 16:20 But now you look at the list of wide receivers that's around Jeremiah Smith, he has 66 targets 16:25 this season. 16:25 Who's the next one in target share? 16:27 Devin McEwen at 21, 66 targets for Smith down to 21 of the next guy and then 12. 16:34 After that, the guy that's got the third most targets, there's nobody. 16:37 So, if they don't run the ball successfully, which I don't think they will when I'm looking 16:41 at the run concepts, Indiana dominates the rush. 16:45 They're top 10 at success rate in line yards. 16:47 They're against inside zone. 16:48 They're 71% success rate defensively. 16:51 They dominate counter, which is the secondary option for the Ohio State offense. 16:55 Both of those are staples of the Ohio State running game with Bo Jackson. 16:59 It's just, it's not going to work. 17:00 Indiana has allowed two carries this season to go over 20 yards. 17:04 That's it. 17:07 It has like three on the year, by the way, your bottom 15 and rush explosiveness. 17:13 So it's not going to happen. 17:14 They're going to be off schedule and that is going to allow what is, I think, the most 17:18 aggressive defense. 17:19 I mean, Indiana is not only just third in tackles for loss, like they're leading 17:23 the nation and pass rush, thanks to Edge, Tobio, soon tsunami. 17:26 I mean, his numbers are insane. 17:30 Look, Ohio State is going to be in passing downs a lot and they're going to have 17:33 to find other options besides Jeremiah Smith. And it's a much easier offense to handle than 17:40 it was last year when they had Cardinal Tate and other receiving options. So I think Indiana's 17:44 got the advantage on that side. On the other side of the ball, this all comes down to run 17:47 concepts that Ohio State has struggled with. We knew coming into the season, 17:51 they would be a good pass defense, and they wouldn't be as good of a rush defense. 17:54 Fully throat success rate on defense against the run, seventh last year. 18:01 Yeah. Yeah. So it's fallen off. And I will give them credit like Turbo Richard and Lee 18:07 Beebe are 35th and Rush EPA. And really Lee Beebe is the guy that's kind of filling the man gap, 18:13 blocking just straight up lineup, block the guy in front of you and go. So Turbo Richard's 18:17 one run in zone read. And although Ohio State's been okay against zone read, 18:23 they fall off really bad with man assignment blocking. And Turbo Richard and both Lee 18:29 BB run that and turbo Richard is really the one that's the lightning bolt on this offense 18:33 4.9 yards after first contact. He's forced 31 miss tackles. I I'm not sure they're going 18:38 to get behind schedule. And if they do, you mentioned that Josh Hoover is not making mistakes. 18:43 No interceptions this year. One turnover worthy play. And by the way, there's not 18:48 just one wide receiver on this offense. Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh have 41 targets 18:51 apiece. They have the same exact numbers. Oh, and they're at least 3.7 yards per 18:56 outrun like if you want to get an idea of like how elite that is like two yards per her 19:01 outrun is explosive. These guys are three points up. 19:03 Yeah. So Smith's the best receiver in college football by a wide margin, but both those guys 19:09 are getting drafted high. 19:10 Well, I only have one other thing to say. And this voodoo that's going on with Indiana 19:16 has got to come to an end. I mentioned this every week on the podcast. There have 19:19 now been nine opponent fumbles against the Hoosiers. Indiana's recovered zero. 19:24 Like they are fumble luck 19:27 When saying is forced when he was forced to scramble in Big Ten play this year, you know, he's not mobile 19:32 This is against Maryland and Iowa 19:34 14% success rate 19:36 Sacked five times three fumbles. Oh 19:38 I mean look 19:41 But saying that he's been running around looking for water in a desert looking for an oasis 19:46 And I think he's about to find an ocean this way look this turnover thing this fumble thing is gonna come 19:50 There's gonna be like five of them recovered in one game coming up. I don't know when I'm not saying it's this game 19:55 There's I have a lot of state power. It is the better team and oh me too. I'm minus one 20:00 I'm a house a minus one. I just think I'm getting the hook here with at home biggest home game in school history 20:08 I know that there's like Ohio State has revenge from last year in the big-time championship 20:11 People will be like this Indiana team is as good. I agree. They're not as good at tight end 20:15 They're not as efficient on offense. They're a bit more explosive the run blocking isn't as good the defense is 20:22 Significantly worse on the back end and they might get a figured out 20:25 But they obviously are missing Boykin more and ponds were on NFL rosters now instead of ponds on Jeremiah Smith 20:29 You're gonna have sharp and so there might be a little bit more opportunities 20:32 I'm curious to see how often they bracket like what because Ohio State's but Ohio State's not as good as last year 20:38 They're defense lost a lot of talent to the NFL and it is just not the same. They cannot get pressure 20:43 they're not great against the run and 20:45 Now they have offensive line injuries. They're supporting cast around Jeremiah Smith isn't as good 20:50 They also can't run the ball. So both of these teams have taken a step back 20:53 From last year. I just think this this lines the other side of three. It should be I think it's gonna close three 21:00 Indiana mine plus three minus 120 now 21:03 Maybe not because this is a huge game public as I say remember where I'm hearing a lot of states the most that team 21:07 Yeah, we can shock me. You're getting I mean, I guess maybe because signety hasn't been covering this year 21:13 Well, I mean the one at five. Yeah, Indiana is one of five against spread and I think a lot of betters recently 21:18 Yeah, if you present that 21:20 I am curious to see what Patricia does. 21:24 Last year, more Ben don't break and I didn't like that against Indiana. 21:29 Their defense was so talented and it's not like Indiana put up a lot of points, 21:32 but they were like, Indiana, 21:34 go down the field and you have to do it, 21:37 march down the field methodically with Mendoza and 21:39 that very efficient offense they could do it. 21:41 Does he say, all right, 21:43 do that again and this offense isn't as efficient and then it'd be like, 21:47 I'm going to take away your explosiveness or, 21:49 But then you're not gonna be pressuring Hoover or does he say I'm gonna pressure Hoover because that's when he makes mistakes 21:55 Yeah, but then you risk the explosives happening. So curious and that's what's gonna decide the total I think 22:02 I think under makes sense 22:03 But depending on how Patricia play you could have a lot of explosives in this game 22:07 Which could make the total squirrely, but how Patricia plays this like does he want to bend? 22:12 But don't break make them or does he want to try to pressure a Hoover? 22:15 But yeah, how I can get a shout out to the Indiana offensive line though because the Indiana offensive line from a 22:23 Stuff for a stuff rate and a line yards is much better than the team's actual rushing success rate 22:29 So that tells me the offensive line is plowing huge holes for Lee BB and turbo Richard 22:33 Like the offensive line is making numbers greater than the team success rate running which means the offensive 22:38 Yeah, I think the running the rush success rate. It's it's it's lower a lot lower than last year 22:43 Yeah, I think it's all of it's like the Hoover's RPO decisions aren't as clean yet and Christmas 22:48 Mendoza was a magician, right? Yeah, Mendoza had some games early. We're like, you know, this offense could still get there 22:55 But yeah, I should be a good one cannot wait to watch it. Let's move on to 23:00 another good one in prime time Notre Dame 23:04 BYU this line has been all over the place 23:06 There was some BYU money initially that drove this number down the nine and a half at some places 23:12 is Nan Notre Dame took some money driving this back out 23:16 to 10 and a half total has taken some under money. 23:21 So we're at Notre Dame, 23:22 a 10 and a half point road favorite at BYU total 23:25 sitting at 46 and a half. 23:28 Huge game in Provo first time, 23:31 college game day will be there since 2009, I think 17 years. 23:39 I believe Leonard Moore is going to play, and if he does, he's the best cornerback in 23:45 college football. 23:45 He's probably my top five in the draft. 23:47 If he does, he erases Glasgow, and there's no LJ Martin, there's still no Andrew Gentry. 23:54 How does BYU move the ball? 23:56 I don't know. 23:58 This isn't the best defense in the country, I've been saying it all year, and if they're 24:02 at full strength and it looks like they will be, you can't, remember this is 24:06 BYU offense there was some weather but they barely cracked 200 yards against TCU and they threw for 24:13 60 yards. I don't know how BYU moves the ball. Now there's some voodoo and it's going to be a jacked up 24:20 stadium and Notre Dame hasn't really been tested and this will be the first really hostile environment 24:25 they will play in all year. There's something to that. There's home field advantage. There's 24:37 But, like, you think about BYU last year and very good football team that could, they 24:47 would cover a lot, they could score a lot, but when they stepped up in class, and that 24:51 class was Texas Tech, which wasn't your normal big 12 defense last year. 24:57 That was a top three defense in the country. 25:00 When they stepped up in class, BYU couldn't score. 25:04 They lost twenty nine seven and thirty four seven 25:08 And that's when they had lj martin and they had better receivers than they do now 25:12 Yeah, I don't know how dyu moves the ball here 25:16 But I've been wrong. I'm by always covered every game. Although they have like a cover margin of like one 25:20 They cover every game by like two points 25:23 Uh 25:24 This is our big 12 25:25 This is our big 12 pre season podcast when we said what happens when by you steps up and play 25:30 Yeah. And then on the flip side, like this, this Notre Dame team has been a machine. 25:37 I, they're my national title pick before the year. They still are my national title pick. 25:41 I tried to warn you about Oregon. And, but like, I'm not fully sold on this offense being like 25:50 super elite, right? They played UNC, Stanford, Purdue, Michigan State, Rice. They played 25:58 Wisconsin and I think Wisconsin is a very good defense. Yeah. And they didn't like the world 26:05 on fire in that game. Now it was game one. But remember, they were gifted a touchdown 26:08 by the refs. They punched in a late touchdown and there was a pick six. So like they really 26:13 scored like 20 legit points. And this BYU defense, well, I think the offense is worse 26:18 than last year. The defense, I think is even better. And this is a real legit defense 26:24 that is physical like Wisconsin they have a future NFL number one at corner and I don't 26:31 I don't love Notre Dame doesn't have like electric weapons 26:36 Now they are starting to find a running game lately which has helped because I was I was talking 26:40 about that earlier in the season but Jonas Walton has provided them with a 26:44 spark in that department so they're not which I was very worried about right you lose 26:49 two first round draft picks and if you're ever struggling to run the ball early he looks 26:53 like he might be the solution to that problem. But I think BYU's defense can hang here. 26:59 The one thing that concerns me is like they're not they're blitzing a ton, 27:03 but they're not getting like enough natural pressure. But I think BYU's defense can 27:07 keep them in this game like so there's a path where they can cover you're going to need like a 27:11 and maybe there's a path where they can win they're going to need some turnovers. 27:14 It's just hard for me to see BYU sustaining any drives here. I played so I show a little 27:21 value on Notre Dame. I respect the spot. I did play. I played a parlay on draft games. 27:28 Tell me how this loses. Notre Dame under 31 and a half points parlayed with BYU under 27:35 21 and a half points plus 110. Like BYU has to win this game 20 to 17. I think that's 27:42 their path. 27:43 I think the total 48. So, you know, and I don't I think that I don't think Notre 27:49 Notre Dame's offense is gonna light the world of fire. 27:50 Also, if they win at BYU, there's no reason to like, 27:53 hey, we won by this many. 27:54 Also, BYU has an incentive, like if they're losing by a lot, 27:57 it's like, all right, let's keep this close, right? 27:59 Like, let's not get super blown out 28:01 for playoff positioning. 28:03 So, I lead Notre Dame, but I played 28:06 under 31 and a half, under 21 and a half. 28:08 I also don't mind the BYU team total, 28:10 but it got smoked. 28:12 I was under 17 and a half, 28:14 which is funny because the line is 10. 28:16 And so the implied team total is like 18 and a half. 28:23 And now the team total is like a below 17 at 16 and a half. 28:28 What are you seeing here? 28:29 It's just hard for me to say, how does BYU do the ball? 28:30 You're not gonna be able to run quarterback power 28:32 40 times against this Notre Dame defense. 28:34 So there is an issue in the advanced stats on BYU 28:38 that would make me a little bit nervous to back them. 28:43 But I, so for everybody out there, 28:44 because I wrote it up on Action Network 28:45 And at the end, I think give the suggested pick was Notre Dame either minus 10 half or minus 11 28:51 I took what was ever on the board when I write it 28:53 I do all my write-ups up generally on Tuesday afternoon 28:55 And so I wrote it at that and somebody tweeted me today and said hey, it's not in the app 28:59 It's not in the app because there are two sharp books out there that are 29:02 Starting to juice out on the 10 and a half for Notre Dame 29:05 And I think there's a chance that the 10 will show up if a 10 shows up 29:09 I'm 100% and if it doesn't show up. I'll play 10 and a half. I'll play 11 29:13 I like Notre Dame in this game. I make it 14. Jonas Walton, you already mentioned, I think he 29:18 is the breakout star in the backfield that Notre Dame has been searching for. 18 carries the first 29:22 four weeks, but he's had 36 in the last two against North Carolina and Stanford. Over 300 yards and 29:28 two touchdowns. I understand those two defenses, but there weren't other running backs taking 29:32 advantage of poor defenses for Notre Dame. So, you know, he's 4.3 yards after first contact. 29:38 Notre Dame uses a heavy outside zone, a little bit of inside and some counter in there. 29:42 And Pippinga and BYU's defense, you know, they're top 15 and stuff right and they're top 25 in most categories 29:49 That's my like we're not getting a ton of pressure their pass rush 29:53 There's two issues that I have with the BYU defense first off their strength of schedule is 86 29:58 So I'm not really sure they've seen elite, you know ground attacks and CJ Carr 30:03 Dominates cover one and that's exactly what Pippinga wants to throw out there 30:06 So I think BYU can throw up a really good fight for a while on defense, 30:13 but how are they going to be able to do it the entire game? 30:16 I'm not sure. 30:16 And the one stat that I do not like about BYU is there are 124th and PFF Tackle Grading. 30:21 There's way too many missed tackles in all of these box scores. 30:25 That is going to burn you for explosives at some point. 30:27 Now, BYU on offense without LJ Martin, what does that mean is going to happen? 30:31 Bachmeier is going to have to run like crazy. 30:33 Last week, he went for over 100 yards on just nine carries 30:35 two explosives against Iowa State. 30:38 I mean, is there going to be a bear on the loose here against Notre Dame? 30:42 And I mean, the Irish have only allowed six rushing attempts to go over 20 yards. 30:46 I mean, I know that's not like Indiana level, like we just talked about. 30:49 But the issue really is at the second level, Notre Dame's 11th best in 30:54 tackle grading per PFF. 30:55 And if you peel that back and look at the guys that play linebacker and 30:58 play safety, Notre Dame is not missing tackles whatsoever. 31:01 However, and Bear Bachmeier lives on jukeying second level and running over second level. 31:08 And that's not happening here because that is his game. 31:12 And he's doing great at getting open, but man, once he gets to that 5-10-yard level, 31:16 that's where smaller defenders, less talented defenders have had real issues bringing Bear 31:21 Bachmeier down. 31:22 That's just not going to be the problem here. 31:24 And Chris Ash is heavy on the Blitz. 31:27 His nickel defense is running Blitz about 42% right now. 31:30 I could just see a scenario where 31:32 Bear Bachmeyer is getting it from all angles. He doesn't have L. J. Martin there 31:35 Who's he gonna throw to in the flats when he gets pressure and plus look at these defensive ends, right? 31:40 Boba cartour 31:41 21 pressures Bryce young 15 pressures is the top pass rush unit in 31:46 FBS per pff 31:48 There's a lot of problems here lining up for Bear Bachmeyer to take this on on his own 31:51 So I like Notre Dame and when it clips 10, I'm going if it doesn't I'll I'll take it up to 11 31:57 But yeah, I mean, Bakmar is going to break a runner to like a long, long one. 32:01 I don't think you will. I don't think you will. 32:04 And Glasker is going to have to have a game. 32:08 Which it's he's a freshman going up against a guy who's going to be drafted 32:10 like fifth next year, because I think more is going to play. 32:14 That's going to be tough, but I do trust the BYU defense to keep them in this. 32:17 And I think BYU has to play this like very conservatively one for their playoff hopes. 32:22 Right. You and you want to win this game. 32:24 You're going to try to win this game. 32:25 But I think the best way to try to win this game is also to keep it close 32:28 So I think they're gonna play like slower rely on your defense. That's I think their biggest 32:32 Edge in this game is their defense because their back end is legit 32:38 Tatu Loa 32:41 Who else? 32:43 Alexander I mean there's their seconder is gonna be fully healthy this week, too 32:47 Evan Johnson, I 32:49 love my guy 32:50 Uh 32:52 The cow transfer at linebacker 32:55 I believe Glasgow's out this week which hurts a little bit 32:58 But they still have a ton of town Williams to breeze like their back end is legit 33:02 Their defense is gonna keep them in this for a while. So, um, good luck fading BYU. I might join you 33:08 But it doesn't happen often, but make sure you get 10 because I do 110. Yeah, it'll be up 17 and 33:15 BYU will score late right, right? 33:20 BYU is it a professional covering organization? I don't like being on the other side of them ever 33:26 I thought I was gonna go with them this week, but how do you think all those Mormons out in Utah have all that money? 33:35 Well, you're claiming they've got the Hawaii Nakao a booster club running things there 33:41 They know they're just smart. They just bet BYU everybody. Why do you think? 33:44 Yeah, true if I would be out there if I wasn't fading BYU every week 33:50 I'd be living in the mountains and bliss with them. All right, let's move on to 33:55 Alabama Tennessee 33:57 Alabama call it 33:59 Seven and a half over a touchdown. I still can't believe where I landed on this game. I wrote this up for action 34:04 I'll let you I mean, I still can't believe how I landed on this game 34:08 Seven and a half point favor in Knoxville 34:10 Rocky time. Yeah 34:12 I'm on the malls. 34:13 What'd you say on the board? 34:15 Oh, they're covering. 34:16 Yeah. 34:16 They're going to my round. 34:17 They're going to my round robin, too. 34:19 I played Tennessee here. 34:21 Number one, the spot Alabama off had emotionally draining, physically draining game against 34:26 Georgia. 34:27 Now going on the road where the war has struggled some in the past, but this is a super flat 34:32 spot for Alabama. 34:33 And they're beat up. 34:34 They're going to be playing without their center. 34:36 Delgatti is out. 34:37 Ryan Coleman Williams is out. 34:38 Take some of the explosiveness away from the offense. 34:40 And by the way, you don't want to play Tennessee without your center going up against Gilliam 34:44 who has been an absolute monster this year. 34:47 I mean, think about what, think about what Tennessee's defensive line did against Texas 34:50 and you just lost your center. 34:51 Yeah. 34:53 McIntyre is going to get the start for Tennessee, which is, I was, that was my assumption when 34:57 I made the Tennessee bat. 34:59 I make this under touchdown. 35:00 So you're giving me over touchdown a good spot, held on his injuries. 35:03 I am. 35:04 I don't get this number. 35:05 I make it four. 35:06 I don't get this number at all. 35:07 So the Tennessee offense has been ugly, but you can't have Brandon out there 35:12 He he snaps the ball. He makes a sandwich. He contemplates life and then he decides to look down for you like 35:18 Just you can't have him out there. He's a freshman. Maybe he's got a doom scroll a little bit before he gets the ball off 35:23 Yeah, he certainly has time here. He thinks he has time 35:27 Mac guys at least getting the ball out quick 35:29 They were hitting some explosives last week, but this is now and this helps is in the dog role 35:34 This is not your old hypo offense. They are they're not slow, but they're a lot slower than usual 35:40 They are run heavy and they are very good running the ball fish up and even his backup and 35:46 They're a defensive first team. This is a defensive running team 35:50 now you hope that they can potentially hit some more explosive here because Alabama has been vulnerable in that department and 35:57 Here's the thing tennis how you slow down Alabama's offense. You have to limit the explosives 36:02 it's Keelan Russell's superpower. He is elite at throwing down the field and you have to get pressure 36:09 on him. And those are two things that Georgia does well and they slowed down, you know, they 36:13 held Alabama's offense in check. Well, Matt, you're not going to have Coleman Williams. 36:17 That helps. It helps not even just him not out there, like just as far as like 36:20 who you're guarding and how you're covering. Tennessee is the number one defense in the 36:25 country in limiting past explosives. Tennessee is also elite at generating pressure. 36:29 Now you can just say and this is true. Okay, who do they play right? So they haven't faced a murderers row of 36:38 offenses 36:38 You know, Texas their offense has struggled 36:42 But they should completely shut down Texas's offense. I mean Texas's offense had more success against Oklahoma than they did against Tennessee 36:49 I'm gonna bank on 36:52 What I've seen and then the main things I make this under a touchdown 36:55 But how about his offensive line beat up wide receiver and not fully healthy coming off emotional physically draining again 37:00 I mean Tennessee was catching four and a half at home against Texas Texas 37:06 Powerrated ahead of Alabama all year. Maybe not right this second and Tennessee covered that game 37:12 I know they got a pump return for touchdown, but now Tennessee plays like these lower scoring uglier games 37:16 I don't think it's the worst matchup 37:18 I think they'll be able to run the ball some Mac and tires getting the ball out quicker huge home field advantage here 37:23 too many points. I think this should be under a touchdown. 37:26 Yeah, I really didn't understand the number. I started to write this up for 37:30 action being convinced that after watching Tennessee play Arkansas, it's just 37:34 kind of dreadful and of an offense. McIntyre had two turnover worthy plays. 37:40 Yeah, he missed right. He just didn't see a safety on one. 37:43 Like, I mean, still, he's a red shirt freshman. It's that's my fear. 37:46 But yeah, so coming into the write up, I thought, oh, yeah, I'm probably going 37:49 to be on Alabama. And then I started going through run concepts 37:52 because you got to stop to Sean Bishop and what you mentioned that this is a 37:58 different flavor of hypo's offense yeah so they like to run inside zone with the 38:02 wide splits on the offensive line right they like to usually you know an 38:06 offensive linemen gets three feet of separation between each other and he 38:08 likes to go like two yards in between all the offensive linemen well here's 38:13 the kicker about what Tennessee's doing differently than they've done in years 38:16 past by the way you mentioned you're about to talk running concepts 38:19 Bishop who's been incredible this year. He's got six hundred and seventy eight yards rushing 38:24 He's averaging six point three yards per carry and that's sometimes he was playing with no passing up at all 38:30 Dwayne Morris still is averaging over six yards per carry. He's up over 300 yards. So there's a nice one-two punch 38:36 Yeah, so they can give each other a break 38:38 But the difference with this season is that hypo is not just using wide splits with his offensive lineman 38:43 He's running inside zone 38:45 zone with 12 personnel at a much higher rate than he's running it with 11 personnel. 38:50 He's using two tight insets and it has turned into, I mean, they're doing very well on the 38:57 ground. 38:58 Top 30 in overall success rate, 19th and line yards, they're pushing people around. 39:03 Top 30 in stuff rate and I think that's been a great benefit because Tennessee hasn't 39:07 had that elite passer, that Hinden Hooker, that passer that can sit back there and 39:12 just throw lasers. 39:13 So teams have been able to queue up and go up against this running game, but it's not stopping them you look at what Alabama does 39:18 They have a huge 39:20 dip in success rate against inside zone when they face two tight-end sets 39:26 that's a problem and 39:27 Crimson the Crimson Tide have allowed some explosives this year 39:30 They're 65th and defensive rush EPA this ship's gonna get down the field and you know 39:36 Macintyre did have five pass explosives against Arkansas. He can get a couple here 39:39 I mean this is a great 39:42 Alabama pass defense. But I think with these wide splits and these two tights, 39:47 they're going to be in short yardage on third down and maybe Hypal takes a shot. 39:51 I don't know. Now the other side of the ball, I think the unsung hero of this 39:55 entire Tennessee team, the entire season has been Jim Knowles. I think he's going 39:59 to limit explosives from Keelon Russell in the ground game. The Tennessee D's, 40:03 I mean, they're not really great against the run mid FBS and line yards and stuff 40:09 rate. But they're pretty good against inside zone. That's Bama's calling card on the ground. 40:14 And I think the one running back that is going to go off here is Tray Sean Brown. He's the go-to 40:20 inside zone guy. So I think he'll have a little bit of success here versus Daniel Hill. 40:24 I like him for an anytime TD, which I saw at minus 120 out there. But Tennessee here. 40:29 New center too. That could have a real impact. 40:32 Yeah. Yeah. And so I think we're Tennessee has a major advantage is their top 10 and 40:37 have it. And when you're missing your center, that's they're not able to call 40:41 out where defenders are. I think Jim Knowles is going to have a field day now 40:44 that he knows that the center is missing. Coming up with cover zero. I've seen Jim 40:48 Knowles run cover zero at almost every program he's been at and lots of ag 40:51 ambulances, lots of ag ambulances. And so that's going to be a huge problem. And 40:56 now Bama is without their star wide receiver, which allows, you know, 40:59 don't have to worry about double coverage. You don't have to worry 41:01 about prep for a wide receiver that can burn you for a touchdown at any 41:04 time. The one thing I'll say at a higher level, throughout three SEC games so far against Texas 41:11 Auburn and Arkansas, the volunteers defense is allowing an average of 17 points per game. 41:16 This is the number one pass EPA allowed team in college football. I think Jim Knowles is going 41:22 to be, I think he's already been the MVP of the Tennessee team. And I think he's going to be 41:25 the reason that Tennessee potentially outright wins this game and not just covers. 41:30 All right, it's on the board. Let's, let's knock out this one quick. This one's going to 41:33 be a tough handicap. Nebraska, Oregon, 11 Eastern kick in Eugene. Tough spot for 41:39 Nebraska. 11 Eastern kick traveling up the West Coast after devastating lost 41:43 Indiana. Tough spot for Oregon. This is season is over. They Dante Moore is out 41:49 again. Who's starting a quarterback this week? Is it a Raola revenge game? 41:54 They're all they're gonna bunch of guys. It might be a Killy Smith Junior 41:57 is getting run. Did you think you'd get to week seven and say per 42:01 Lanning Brock Thomas and Dylan Reola are competing for the starting duties. 42:06 I mean, and the Kelly Smith Junior. 42:08 And he's getting some running the red shirt freshman. 42:13 I don't know. 42:15 I'm sure that kid didn't think he was going to play for three years. 42:18 Right. 42:19 This is a tough spot for both teams. 42:22 And Clandria, by the way, on the other side of the ball, 42:25 Clandria hasn't had a big time throw since week four. 42:27 He had four turnover plays against Indiana. 42:29 like I 42:31 That's the Calandria that I'm used to from UNLV for and from Virginia if everybody 42:38 The best bet for this game is to include Nebraska in your own realm to which I will be doing 42:42 There's just a lot of variance and who knows with the spot and both teams could come out flat and I 42:49 No idea. Do you have anything on that game? I I 42:52 Exactly project this where the market is a 7 and 52 and the reason I'm not touching this game 42:56 But it backs you up and saying if you got to pick something in this game and you want to do an outright on Nebraska 43:02 landing admitted 43:04 In his pressers this week that there are staff changes being made behind closed doors 43:10 So offensive coordinator Drew Merringer 43:14 He's just not keeping up the standard of Will Stein and I'm not sure who's calling plays. I mean, this is a 43:19 This is a disaster. This is an absolute disaster offensively for Oregon 43:25 three-way quarterback battles, offensive coordinator getting his duties taken away from them. 43:31 They also just might be like completely devastating. This is supposed to be a national title team. 43:34 This is like this. This is Penn State of last year. I said it a couple weeks ago. 43:39 It feels that way. Yeah. So, I mean, I think you're right about if you like anything, 43:42 maybe go that way. And please don't give us five voicemails about, oh, Nebraska didn't win. 43:47 They got blown up. Look, things are bad for Oregon right now. Things are really bad on offense. 43:51 They're murky at best Dylan road one of the worst games 43:54 I've ever seen by any quarterback at any level last played in Nebraska like Dylan real will plays the worst games 44:00 But you get all this goddamn my home's height before the game, right? I just I don't think they could put a roll back out there 44:06 I think it's either gonna be Thomas or Smith or a combination which adds even more variants 44:10 We have some additional variants in another stewards questionable to forgot about I forgot to mention that I haven't stewards questionable 44:16 So that that's one of your key playmakers 44:20 Florida, Texas, oh boy, Texas 11-and-a-half point favorite total 51-and-a-half both teams 44:27 looking to bounce back Florida two straight losses their defense has been a disaster teams 44:32 are just loading the box stopping the run and Jane balls had two back-to-back bad games 44:36 and they've lost I can give them a pass for the Missouri game just giving the spot but 44:41 to get blown out at home by South Carolina there are all kinds of issues on the defense 44:44 specifically in the back end. Also can't stop the run. Florida is a front runner. They need to run 44:50 the ball, get up, and then keep running the ball to set up play action, misdirection, easy passes. 44:56 Can they do that here? I'm not sure. We also don't know who's going to be a quarterback. Aaron 45:00 Filo is questionable. Vernell Brown is also questionable. They need him. They've been 45:03 missing him. He adds a very important element to their offense. I don't know. Texas's run 45:09 Defense is really good. They can also load the box can Brown if it's 45:16 What's his name Tremel Brown 45:18 Tremel Brown or 45:20 Philo, can they beat Texas in the regular drop-back passing game files? Well 45:26 Yeah, Philo's questionable. So it might be the backup Tremel Jones. Sorry. They were in a competition in the summer 45:33 I don't know now Texas can they fully can arch fully take advantage of this 45:40 Suspect, Florida secondary, I don't know if they don't write him off for the year, then it's over for Texas. And to be fair to Arch, he has not been good this year. He's been big. I mean, look at any metrics you can adjust for schedule. He's been like an average quarterback with like long stretches of bad play. 45:56 I mean, even against UTSA, which is a bad defense, he was bad. He has played Ohio State, Tennessee and Oklahoma, who are three excellent defenses. So this is a step down class. 46:07 You better be good this week. If you want to prove that you're a legit national title contender. Mm-hmm. I 46:13 Don't know. I I got nothing on this game. This is a very very tricky game. I don't want to back 46:20 Texas to win by margin with the state of their offense and just things being off. I 46:25 Know Florida is gonna be desperate. Texas is gonna be desperate 46:28 There's questions a quarterback with Florida 46:30 I'm not sure if they're gonna be able to run the ball in that they get behind 46:33 They might just be screwed and then it could get ugly if they get up early 46:36 Like the key or the beginning portions of this game is so important. I 46:42 Got nothing here. You got anything. Yeah, I took Texas early at nine and a half. I love them in this game 46:47 I'm not sure I would take 11 a half. I do I do make this 12 and a half 46:53 There are rumblings going on down there that Sark should be giving up his play calling 46:58 He's never gonna give that up ever 47:00 But I think it could motivate him to create margin if there's an opportunity. 47:06 And I think there's going to be opportunity. 47:07 Florida is 119th in the defensive pass EPA and Arch needs to make up for his turnovers in the Red River game. 47:15 I don't think Florida is going to have any issues. 47:17 You know, I think Florida I think Florida is going to have any success in the trench on both sides of the ball. 47:25 Justin Terry, probable for the Texas defensive line. 47:27 That's not going to that's not going to go well for the Florida offensive line. He was doubtful for OU now 47:32 He's here 47:33 Filo questionable. He took a bunch of hits against South Carolina in that loss 47:38 To me, this feels like a very depleted team limping 47:43 And not just I mean, they're they're limping in emotionally, too 47:47 Like their fan base is beating them up there 47:49 You know, their coach is beating them up in practice 47:52 And now you're gonna go play a team that really needs to have a strong offensive performance 47:56 And then there is an avenue to do that against this Florida secondary. I think Texas creates margin here 48:02 Missouri Ole Miss. Oh 48:04 Can't wait for this one Ole Miss five and a half point home favorite against Missouri total 58 and a half 48:11 Missouri has been they were 48:14 They've been much better than I expected especially on defense give credit. I mean they're their defensive line is 48:20 is been incredible. They're not blitzing. I think they're the least 48:23 lowest blitz rate in the country. They have one of the highest pressure rates. They're getting 48:27 pressure with four. Their back end is still, I still have questions about just like their 48:32 actual talent on the back end. And like pressure, it matters against Chambos, 48:37 but he gets rid of the ball so quick. He's so good at avoiding blitzes. 48:42 We're going to really see what the Missouri secondary is made of this week because 48:47 because you look back at a Missouri has played this year. 48:51 You know, they lost to Mississippi State, 48:52 they lost to Camargo Taylor. 48:54 They beat Texas A&M, they beat Florida, 48:57 like the regular drop-back passing game isn't there. 49:00 So I still have questions in that department, 49:02 but there's also questions about Missouri, 49:04 Ole Miss's defense, which has not been good. 49:06 The show, especially when stepping up in class. 49:09 They need to get pressure, 49:12 but Austin Simmons gets rid of the ball quick as well. 49:15 I also have been impressed with the running game for Missouri the past couple of weeks. No, I'm not hardy 49:21 Roberts has been an absolute rocket ship. This one totals 58 a half 49:26 It's hard for me to see many stops on either end 49:29 This is gonna come down to this 49:33 Does Ole Miss have this golden half something on Austin Simmons to force him in to a couple mistakes 49:40 He hasn't had that mistake game yet, but he's been a little up and down 49:44 He's looked very good at times, but I mean against A&M. He was 14 to 20 for 147 yards against Troy 49:49 He's 11 of 20 for under Nate very streaky. He's very up and down 49:52 Can you avoid the mistakes? That's what I think this comes down to. What are you seeing here? 49:55 If you have Missouri on their team total under you need this game for your lungs 50:02 That was six and a half 50:04 I was pretty heavy into that in the preseason. I 50:07 Just an overview of their schedule. I don't think they're winning a game in November 50:12 Texas, Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma. I don't think they're winning any of those games. And we'll assess it when we get there. Next week, I'm sorry, October on Halloween, they have Arkansas. So this is a game. If you have Missouri under six and a half, you have to have it for your lungs. 50:31 potentially, you bet on Missouri this week as five and a half, six point underdogs bet 50:36 them on the money line to maybe try and cover your win total. 50:41 I'm still thinking about doing that. 50:43 So if you see something go in the app on Missouri, it's not because I like them in 50:47 this game. 50:48 I don't. 50:49 I actually make this game eight. 50:51 I think Ole Miss can beat them, but some's got to be done about my win total ticket 50:56 and I'm still ruminating about what I'm going to do with that. 50:58 All right. 50:58 Missouri is coming into this game with 11 guys that are questionable and eight guys that are probable like they're really beat up 51:04 Of course, I'm not hardy still out 51:07 So, you know as poor of a rush defense Ole Miss is they have a much tougher strength of schedule 51:13 I mean the Rebels have line yards and stuff rate advantages against the Missouri offense and 51:18 And so I think that kind of sticks out to me too plus Austin Simmons like 51:23 Look, he's still sitting at seven big-time throws six turnover worthy plays 51:27 He's not doing anything that special in the passing game. It's just that 14 to 1 TD to INT ratio. He's not responsible for that whatsoever 51:33 It's his weapons 51:35 No big-time throws last week and 28 attempts against Texas A&M 51:40 So what worries me is that cornerback Edwin Joseph is out for Ole Miss 51:44 He's like one of their top guys. He's the corner that they needed and 51:49 The corners behind him in the secondary in the depth chart are listed as probable 51:53 I mean, I was saying they're not going to play, but they're hurt too. 51:56 So I get a little worried about it from that standpoint with Missouri. 51:59 Um, all this dominated Vandy, we're going to talk about that later in the pod. 52:04 Uh, I think what's interesting about Trinidad Chambla is you ask, has he had a fall off 52:08 from last year? 52:09 He has the exact same turnover, worthy play rate, adjusts a completion percentage and 52:14 average depth target is 2025. 52:16 He won. 52:16 Lacey comes back. 52:17 Not on the availability report. 52:19 He had seven carries against Vandy last week. 52:21 He's at full strength. 52:23 I think that gives Ole Miss the advantage here. So there's two handicaps here. One, I think Ole Miss 52:28 I power rate him as being favored by eight. I think that's the way I think they're gonna win the game 52:33 But at the same time if you're sitting around hold a Missouri team total under 52:37 You need a win total under. Yeah, win total. I'm sorry. Yeah, win total under from the futures perspective 52:42 You desperately need Ole Miss to win this game and you need to start thinking about that because they're already up 52:48 Five and one on the season 52:49 Yeah, the Missouri they do have some key guys defensively on 52:54 There's a lot. I mean if you're trying to 52:56 Some games gamesmanship but like Santana banner he matters Dara Smith job Robert Woodard really matters 53:05 Kaden Lee, but this this game from a storyline perspective. Come on. This is awesome 53:09 I'm at I'm at six six in it. So I'm close to market here 53:13 This is awesome like Austin Simmons and Kaden Lee left to go to Missouri Austin's lost his job 53:18 to turn that jambos now they're playing each other 53:21 Awesome game and basically an elimination game for the college wall plow 53:26 Neither these I don't think either of these teams are gonna 53:29 Be able to overcome 53:31 The loss here. There's a recalls will play off. That's a crazy 53:35 Crazy look their defense has been great. I know Robert's has been good 53:39 Oh, Simmons is better than I expected Simmons just can't make the mistakes 53:42 I think that's what's gonna end up being the difference here 53:44 You're gonna see a mistake or do from him and not jambos, but 53:47 I respect what you guys done this year. I really thought I really thought when Missouri lost Kirby 53:54 Kirby Moore their offensive coordinator that the offensive is take a step back, especially that on Mod Hardy 53:58 I I've been surprised very smart not Austin Simmons. It's everybody around him 54:03 Did that but that defensive front their linebackers really that defensive front is real 54:07 I mean they're getting brushers as well as anyone without blitzing and they're blitzing at before we move on 54:13 Do you think Missouri wins a game in November, Texas at Georgia? 54:17 Host Kentucky, host Oklahoma. 54:19 That Ole Miss, I think they lose at Arkansas. 54:22 They win maybe Arkansas. 54:25 I mean, it's a tough spot. 54:26 I know. 54:27 I mean, they are a lie. 54:28 But it's sandwiched between Ole Miss, Texas, and Georgia. 54:31 I mean, they could be Texas. 54:32 It's fucking it's fucking arch at Georgia. 54:35 They lose the. 54:37 I mean, they can meet Oklahoma, too. 54:38 The Oklahoma's offense. 54:39 All right, there's work to do. 54:41 Yeah, like, I think that. 54:43 I have the under. I think I'm I've already written it off. Okay. All right. So 54:48 But it's a brutal brutal finish to the schedule. I think they'll go under if Arkansas can get them 54:53 Can we get one effort now? We get my Arkansas three and a half over. So yeah, please 54:57 All right, then finally the other market game. We just talked about Oklahoma 55:00 Oklahoma at Oklahoma hosting Kentucky in prime time 55:04 730 eastern 55:06 in my beloved Norman 55:07 Oklahoma six and a half point favor total down to 43 and a half 55:13 I hate to say it. I played Oklahoma. Yeah, I make it over touchdown. 55:17 You played it. I lean it. 55:19 I haven't played it yet. 55:20 I played it and I played some Kentucky team total under 17 and a half. 55:23 I think this is a nightmare matchup for Kentucky's offense. 55:26 Look, Minchi has been great this year, but it's been all willstein 55:29 who's to go and but everything's with play action. 55:33 The running game has been great. 55:35 I don't I think I don't think they're going to have much success on early downs. 55:39 It's going to be Minchi who is going to struggle, 55:42 I think against the Blitz and under pressure against the best defense in the country 55:46 Like look what happened against Alabama once they started bringing pressure 55:50 It's a tough spot for Kentucky now. It's a tough spot for Oklahoma after the Texas win 55:55 But they had a buy before that and they're at home in prime time 55:58 Kentucky winning at South Carolina on a two-point conversion then coming home in a hype spot winning in overtime against LSU on a two bookers 56:05 Two games they probably should have lost 56:07 They got I mean added what a 30% when post game when it's against South Carolina 56:11 They all four four downs went their way. They were plus two turnover margin plus two turnover margin last week 56:17 They've been very fortunate with turnovers this year 56:20 I think they're just gonna be out of gas and I I don't know how they move the ball on this Oklahoma defense now 56:25 Mattier could get the game away 56:26 But the other factor is not only do I make this over a touchdown? 56:30 Oklahoma who by the way has looked mature has been a disaster, but they played the Michigan defense 56:35 They played the Texas defense. 56:37 It's been a pretty brutal schedule. 56:41 I think Meteor had the, he had basically had the Yps, 56:43 a Georgia, they played the Georgia defense. 56:46 He was, he could even hold onto the ball. 56:48 I think that those late throws 56:50 did so much for his confidence. 56:52 And they also might be healthier this week. 56:54 They might get bowing back. 56:55 They might get the Susie back. 56:56 They might get Pierre Louis back. 56:58 Although he was on crutches. 56:59 I don't think they'll get him back. 57:02 And Kentucky's dealing with their own injuries. 57:03 But I think they're often started to like get some rhythm in the second half of that game in the Texas defense much better than Kentucky's defense 57:09 So I think they'll be able to put a couple drives together. I think they're gonna turn Minchie over a couple times 57:15 Huge special teams advantage Kentucky having a kicker 57:19 Their kicker went like four sixteen at Davidson a couple years ago, and you saw him last week 57:23 You know confidence is missing like 20 or chip shots 57:27 They're gonna need to kick some field goals this week. That's not good in Oklahoma special teams are elite. I think it should be over a touchdown. I 57:33 I hate laying points with Oklahoma, but boom or sooner, baby. 57:36 I can't even figure why I haven't played this ex. 57:38 I make it nine. 57:39 Um, we're on the board. 57:41 Yeah. 57:41 Yeah. 57:42 I put it on the board because I'm going to end up playing it. 57:43 Um, one of the couple of sharp books that I know of just dropped it from six 57:48 and a half to six. 57:49 So I'm going to see where this goes if it's just being set up. 57:52 But yeah, I'll be on Oklahoma. 57:53 Uh, a couple of things. 57:54 It wasn't six. 57:55 It's pretty much six and a half. 57:57 Yeah. 57:57 There's one sense out there. 57:59 It's bouncing. 57:59 I just, you know, and I don't know what it is. 58:01 I don't know why on Thursday afternoons when you and I pod the board just goes crazy. Um, it's our producer 58:08 Are we actually live? No, okay 58:12 There's three of them 58:13 I would say there's three notes that I want to make out here first off 58:16 OU defends every single run concept that stein goes with outside inside zone 58:22 Man man assignment blocking OU defends all those 60 success rate 58:26 I'm not expecting a lot out of cj backster who by the way is questionable. Yeah, you might not go 58:31 So the OU offensive line injuries are mounting just a little bit there. 58:36 There's a couple of both guards are out there as questionable. 58:38 We'll see if they play. 58:40 But Kentucky is one of the worst teams in passing downs defensively. 58:45 They are a hundred and thirty fifth and defensive pass down success rate. 58:49 You are going to get that first down. 58:52 And how do I know that? 58:53 Because this is the largest third down discrepancy 58:56 on the board on the on the other side of the ball. 58:59 Oh, you is third defensively and third downs, Kentucky's 135th. 59:04 This is too much. 59:06 So this is our third SCC game in a row. 59:08 I know once you back in Kentucky now, I get it. 59:10 I love Will Stein. 59:11 Numbers, numbers play and make it over touchdown. 59:14 I got to play it. 59:15 It's our third SCC game in a row where the team coming in from the road 59:20 is majorly got some availability. 59:22 You have to, I would say Friday night when SCC updates it 59:24 and you're talking about maybe drink is is kind of screwy 59:28 with the injury report, because Lane does that shit too, right? 59:32 Except what happens is on Fridays, like you remember, there was a guy 59:35 that I think went from out to doubtful to not even on the report for Lane one time. 59:40 Like once they get to Friday, they really clean all of the injury. 59:44 The availability reports up with the injuries. 59:45 So maybe we'll check on Missouri tomorrow. 59:47 All right, there's your seven marquee games involving arguably all top 20 teams. 59:53 What a Saturday. 59:54 That gave you 40, 50 minutes on that. 59:57 Let's go through 10 more in the rundown quickly. Let's try to do this in like 15 minutes. Houston, Oak State Houston four and a half point home 60:04 favorite 60:06 Mayo Houston's corner. He's questionable. He's a pro. He might be like a top 50 guy when it's all said and done 60:11 They need him to play they're not getting much pressure without blitzing that concerns me because once you get pressure on Mesta maker 60:17 That's when he makes mistakes. That's my concern here. I don't know. Oak State gets many stops either 60:23 like this is the over got hit for a reason. This to me is good old-fashioned 60:28 Big 12 shootout. I think you have a bet on the side here. Who do you like? 60:32 Oh, I have Houston here. There's no answers for Oklahoma State's D against the rushing 60:36 attack of Mackay Hughes and Rashawn Sanford the second. Oak State is 85th in defensive 60:41 rushing success rate. They're Havix outside the top 100. I think Houston's 60:44 gonna cook offensively. And then if you go to the other side of the ball, 60:48 you mentioned the corner, you know, the best of makers had three games over 60:51 300 yards straight. But the Pokes have really struggled to get scoring opportunities to tune 60:57 into TDs because they are outside what the top 70 and offensive finishing drives. So they need 61:02 more touchdowns and field goals. And that's what's been happening a lot lately. And when you have 61:06 a total of 62, like, you need touchdowns, not field goals. And so that's been a huge problem 61:11 with the Oklahoma State offense. So that's why I'm gonna, I've already, I've already put 61:14 in a bet on Houston. I don't know if I'll have any in this game. I keep going back 61:17 I'm kind of close to the number, but Oklahoma states run these actually pretty good. They're I really like their their linebackers 61:23 I don't really much like it much else about the defense 61:26 But I think I don't know if he's gonna get pressure and that's what mess maker can cook right into my head 61:31 I'd take Oklahoma. I'd take Oklahoma state right now, but I could change my mind 61:35 I think it comes down to the fact that they're not getting into the end zone as much as they should 61:39 So I think this is last team at the ball wins and covers 61:43 Like that game is good to be super exciting to watch 61:45 That's a rank matchup that we didn't even cover in the marquee like an actual rank matchup Wisconsin UCLA 61:51 This should this was this should have been almost in the marquee. I'm telling you 61:56 Well, you see I used to as a two and a half point favorite at home total 62:03 Obviously it's coming down 43 62:07 Nico I'm a lever is out for the season tie deepenbock. We'll get the start the Cal Poly transfer 62:12 for, I played Wisconsin here. 62:15 If you wait for a three, 62:17 I think you might get a three at some point again. 62:19 I played three. 62:20 There's a three on the East coast 62:21 of the big one in the East coast, so. 62:23 Yeah, yeah. 62:24 I like Wisconsin here. 62:25 I mean, I wasn't too far off from three 62:29 with a healthy, I'm only the end. 62:32 If you see that coming off that huge win, 62:34 Wisconsin coming off of a buy, 62:36 I know there's travel, but the buy helps. 62:38 Wisconsin's defense has been elite. 62:40 I really love their linebackers. 62:42 That helps against this run game their secondary is much more athletic this year 62:47 Remember they played with Notre Dame. There's the three basically bullshit touchdowns in that game very misleading final 62:54 UCLA meanwhile 62:56 We love Bob Chesney. They've been great this year 63:00 But the schedule is like really broken their way. They played 63:03 Oregon with the backup quarterback and Rola who basically is just 63:07 On drugs in the pocket throwing the ball off in the air 63:12 They, you know, they got in a shoot at Purdue move the ball on them at will 63:15 They played San Diego State who's been a disaster. They played Cal with a kindergarten playcaller before they made a change 63:22 So like the schedule has broken their way a number of times 63:27 And they've gotten so much turnover luck. I think they're averaging like 3.8 63:31 takeaways per game, which is by far the most in the country 63:36 Now Cole and Joseph will cough it up at times 63:39 But I trust this Wisconsin dealer and even here's the biggest the UCI run game has been so elite 63:45 And part of that is because you have to respect Nico and his speed and athleticism 63:49 And I don't think 63:51 That you have to do that as much now with Ty Diefenbach. He's a little mobile 63:54 But this is the guy who was bad at Cal Poly like you had nine touchdowns nine interceptions 63:58 You don't even have to respect the pass and once Nico left last week. What did they have? 64:04 25 carries for 85 yards 64:07 You could and Wisconsin has the linebackers to shut down Wayne Knight and company 64:12 You know, maybe you get that one game bounce like a rider backups in and ever like and Joseph turns it over 64:17 But I played Wisconsin here be like I like Wisconsin too. I think they can win outright. I 64:23 Think the one thing I'll add though is I think the number has it already baked in that this is a spot to back Wisconsin 64:29 Because the UCLA is big win and and the quarterback change all of that 64:32 I think is baked in three super important because it's gonna be a lower scoring game 64:35 Yeah, yeah, so I would grab the three there. There is a book out there holding a three 64:40 I'm not really sure it's gonna come back to that if you don't get it 64:43 I think it might touch at times. They could bought and touch and bought and touch and bought Miami FSU 64:50 Miami's a 21 and a half point tone favor 64:54 off of a buy 64:55 They don't get many hype games. They might want to show out Heisman numbers. I'm below 21 on my number 65:03 Yeah, but do I want to play Florida State here like they could quit they quit like one thing goes wrong 65:08 They quit they also have no past day. They can't get pressure. So they're gonna get shredded 65:14 Miami's run D's been elite so that that's what you need against Florida State like they're gonna have to hit a couple jump balls 65:20 They're gonna need to get out to they're gonna have to start that because they're gonna get crushed 65:23 And I think Miami might run it up here like they did against Clemson like they're not gonna take their foot off the gas 65:28 So no, thank you, even though it showed value on the part of state. 65:34 You got anything here? 65:35 I mean, I make it 19, but I completely agree with you. 65:38 Like Ash and Daniels and Usman, 65:40 Kroma, they're going to face the Miami defense as number one in defensive 65:42 rushing success rate, ninth in line yards, a sixteenth in stuff rate. 65:47 The by the way, did you see corner Chuck Kenan, the top rated 2026 65:53 Siney have a hundred and fifty mile an hour police chase. 65:56 Mike Noravell dismissed him from the team two days ago. 65:58 Did you see that? 65:59 I saw that, yeah. 66:00 150 mile an hour police, that's the kind of kids 66:02 that are getting signed by Florida State. 66:05 Look, I think the beat reporters said 66:09 after Florida State got a 14-0 lead 66:11 and then completely blew the Gaby's Louisville. 66:14 They called them, the team has a lack 66:17 of emotional maturity. 66:19 Is this the kind of team you want to put 66:21 your harder and money on to try to cover 66:24 this number against Miami? 66:25 me. The answer is no. So I'm not saying the number is too high for me, but there's no way 66:33 I'd put any money on Florida State if I was in a pool or anything like that. 66:37 Penn State, Michigan in the toilet bowl, the disappointment bowl, Michigan's a seven-point 66:41 home favorite, total 43. You got anything here? I got nothing. 66:45 Zero. I'm right on market. And, you know, I mean, all this game does is get one 66:50 of them closer to a bowl, which makes me shiver. 66:54 I leave Michigan on this than the spot like at home off a buy Penn State just might fold it Duke UNC 67:01 I think you're gonna see some creative things with Underwood and like 67:05 Off the buy. I like Duke here. I think there's a really good spot to back Duke off a loss and bad spot against Georgia Tech 67:12 UNC meanwhile, they play Notre Dame they go on the road 67:15 They get a top 25 upset, but they got the play pits back up quarterback 67:19 Right you're going on the road again. You're playing a Duke team off the loss 67:22 The difference is Nate Shepherd UNC can't stop the run 67:28 They want to limit explosives both these teams do a really good job of limiting explosives 67:32 Duke is good to have more success with Nate Shepherd UNC is also beat up in the secondary 67:36 They're missing a ton of guys now 67:38 The reason it is a flat three which I played that it moved to three and a half or it was three and a half 67:43 It came down to three and I played it moved ticked up the three and a half. It's back to three. Why? 67:48 It's because Nate Shepard top five running back in the country is listed as questionable. Yep. I 67:55 One of their offensive linemen also as well. I I have no concerns 68:00 now you could miss 68:02 But they asked him after the game like about his injury and he said I was dealing with it throughout the game 68:08 It's all it was. I'm good to go. So he said after the game. I have I think he's gonna play 68:13 That's why I bet it. I think he's gonna be a full strength 68:16 like UNC can't stop the run. So, and with all their secondary injuries, I think you 68:22 get enough passes. Duke's going to create some havoc on defense. I like Duke at home 68:26 minus three. I think it's cheap if shepherds ago and at full strength, and I think he will 68:30 be. Yeah, the fact that Duke can't run the 68:32 ball, but North Carolina can't defend it. Duke can't run the ball. What do you mean 68:36 Duke can't run the ball? Well, they're 101st in rushing success, right? It's all 68:40 EPA, like it's all exposed to state shepherd breaking runs, which is going to do. 68:44 But but I mean the fact that North Carolina can't do anything, you know with that then I think I think it's Duke, too 68:52 Shepherd is 68:54 Averaging 6.3 yards per carry on 118 carries. Yeah, it's explosives like their success rate is outside the top 100 69:01 But they're explosive their EPA explosive rate is like off the chart 69:05 TCU Baylor, I think I saw on the app. You're betting your your boy Dave. Yeah, I'm fading Dave, right? 69:13 Yeah. I took TCU in this game. I'm trying to remember what I put in on my notes here, but 69:20 really, oh yeah, there's a strength, there's definitely a strength of schedule discrepancy 69:24 going on here. You know, Baylor defensively, I think there's a little bit of fraud in some 69:30 of the numbers against the rush, the line yards, the run concepts. They're, you know, 69:35 and then on the other side of the ball, I think TCU is going to be just fine. I mean, 69:38 I mean, they're still top 25 in success rate. 69:40 They're seventh in stopping methodical drives, 69:43 which Baylor doesn't do at all. 69:45 So, you know, Baylor's outside 69:46 the top 100 offensive success rate too. 69:49 I just think the number, TCU is due, right? 69:54 I just, I don't see much of a discrepancy 69:56 in these two in the advanced numbers. 70:00 Here's a question for you. 70:02 Speaking of the big 12. 70:05 I saw you lay it with Texas Tech. 70:07 Gross. 70:07 I can't bet that team I get coming off of by Arizona State is not looked impressive. I 70:13 Can't back I can't lay doubled I can't lay double 70:15 I don't want to lay double digits with that Texas Tech offense or I make it 18 and a half 70:19 It was my early play of the week and when I wrote it and I will say this Sunday night when I wrote it 70:23 There was a 13 and a half by the time I submitted it to our editor 70:26 Shout out to Pete. Um, it was market says you're right 70:30 Well, it was 14 and then by the time I woke up and posted the story was 14 and a half 70:34 But I mean, I may I make it 18 and a half. 70:36 So I'd still play it at 14 and a half. 70:37 It's just it was it was early week numbers play. 70:41 And look, if Texas Tech plays to their ability and there's a lot of injuries 70:44 on that team that are coming back, they were like a half dozen key injuries. 70:48 And all of them, I think only I saw like one or two on the 70:52 on the on the on the availability report. 70:55 So Georgia, Georgia State, J.M. 71:00 You wanted to shout it out in the belt, big one. 71:02 I wanted to play Georgia State. 71:03 I need 14 because their run day is so bad, which is bad news against J.M. 71:07 You Georgia State has advantages against the Duke secondary. 71:10 Yeah, Georgia State's going to be able to pass like over make sense there. 71:14 And by the way, the Dukes are one hundred and thirty-third and strength of schedule. 71:17 So I I'm just going to say this. Well, the last time I said it, I was right. 71:23 Can Georgia State win this game? I'm serious. I mean, it's like 71:27 you've been calling for a loss. Shoot out. Sure. 71:30 I mean, you've been calling for a J.M. 71:32 You lost for quite a while and they lost the box where they should a lot of post game. We expected like 40% last week 71:37 They should have lost to George Southern. Okay. Well, I okay. Well, I'm I just 71:42 Cannot defend the run for the for their life. All right 71:47 But they can throw they'll be able to throw Karen Vanderbilt will throw in Jamie Jamie secondary is bad 71:52 Finally wait Cal. I'm I'm I'm playing Cal 71:56 The change in the number the Tribals baked in because I make the game 13 72:01 What do you mean because that the number at nine I was like, whoa, what is this? 72:04 And I'm not gonna get like screwed over by taking a team traveling from the East Coast to berserk Lee, right? 72:10 Cal thinking Virginia Tech. What just happened? I make it 6.8 72:15 uh, I've upgraded Cal a bunch because of the change in plate caller 72:20 And here's the thing wake might be without their best pass rusher 72:23 And they might be without Carlos Hernandez. Who's the key to their own? Well that that may yeah, I saw that 72:28 That makes a difference. 72:29 But here's the thing. 72:31 So Cal, JKS is back, new play caller. 72:34 The offense is completely different. 72:36 Like they'd shred it against, they beat Votek, 72:37 they shred it against UNLV. 72:39 UNLV has a good pass defense too. 72:40 And Wake Forest, I bet them a bunch this year. 72:42 I've yet to fade Wake. 72:43 I think I've been on like four times. 72:45 They've been a covering machine, they've been awesome. 72:48 Dicker's been awesome. 72:48 Huge coaching mismatch here with Dicker versus with Tosh. 72:52 But they have benefited. 72:55 Wake has been, I think this is the top 72:56 of the market on Wake. 72:57 They have benefited from their schedule in that the cows had a much way more difficult schedule, but here's 73:05 Wake played Akron in the first game of the year when like Poff and Burger got ruled in L 73:10 They covered Miami. I know there's some secondary out, but wait. I mean secondary was all out 73:15 I bet him against Miami. They should have lost a Purdue by the way. Yeah, it's in each room 73:21 They beat Louisville in a coin flip game impressive win, but it was a wrong 73:26 They crushed Stanford who hasn't and then NC States like entire team is out last week. So 73:33 Yeah, they've definitely benefited 73:36 Cal's gonna be healthier this week week for us might have to keep guys out. I'm playing Cal 73:39 I haven't played yet. I'm waiting to see if 10 pops, but whoop. I'm gonna play down in half. I like the spot 73:45 And I think we're just at the top of the market on week dick is awesome 73:48 But I'm playing week chat GPT can do more than answer questions. It can help you get real work done 73:55 ChatGPT work is built for bigger projects with multiple steps. 73:59 You bring the goal along with the information it needs, 74:02 like briefs, notes, files, feedback, calendars, datasets, or project plans. 74:08 Then, ChatGPT can help turn all of that into something useful – 74:12 an analysis, a tracker, a deck outline, a prototype, or a workflow you can keep shaping. 74:18 It can also use approved apps, connected tools, files, and browser contexts 74:23 to help move the work forward. 74:25 And you stay in control. 74:26 You give direction, review drafts, approve actions, 74:30 redirect the work, and choose the final output. 74:32 So you spend less time sorting through busy work 74:35 and more time making progress on the work that matters. 74:38 Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas 74:41 and projects. 74:42 Get started at chatgpt.com by selecting work mode, 74:46 available on plus and pro plants. 74:49 Black Friday is coming. 74:51 Last year, businesses on Shopify made billions in sales. 74:56 This holiday season, you could be one of them if you start now. 75:00 Shopify helps you launch fast, so you can design your site 75:03 and start selling before the biggest shopping days of the year. 75:07 What are you waiting for? Tis the season to start selling. 75:11 Start for free at Shopify.com. 75:14 Lisa, we should tell them about our new show. 75:17 Oh my God, Lexi, we have a new podcast. 75:20 It's called, Don't Lie to Me. 75:21 I'm Lexi Iwano. 75:23 We're two best friends, 22 years apart, 75:25 but so close at heart. 75:27 And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, 75:29 which means we have wildly different references, 75:32 occasionally different opinions. 75:33 And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. 75:36 I'm not gonna get anywhere fighting. 75:39 That is wild. 75:40 I learned that about you today. 75:43 Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, 75:46 Good taste is my business, and I've always got something to say. 75:50 If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. 75:54 We're gonna talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, 75:58 and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. 76:02 Because you told us how accommodating you are. 76:04 Obviously I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, 76:07 but there's only so much fight I can fight. 76:09 Don't lie to me. 76:10 Don't lie to me. 76:12 Don't lie to me. 76:14 Don't lie to me. 76:15 Don't lie to me. 76:16 Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts, I don't really care. 76:24 I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess podcast. 76:30 The true crime comedy podcast all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. 76:34 Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Deppery, Lamorne Morris, and Nicole Byer. 76:40 Ooh, I scammed them. 76:42 What? 76:42 I could talk to you for an hour. 76:43 You're a generational yapper like me. 76:46 That's why I had to make yapping a job. 76:48 And the scams run the gamut. 76:50 I'm talking about scams from the 1800s all the way up to today. 76:54 I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers. 76:58 Call your grandparents. 77:00 Tell your parents to stop clicking on links. Please. 77:03 And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. 77:06 If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you. 77:09 And I'm also here to laugh with you. 77:11 So, if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself 77:15 from criminals, start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcast, or 77:20 wherever you get your podcasts. 77:22 Scam Goddess! 77:24 There are thousands of podcasts that can tell you how to better yourself. 77:29 Get Worse with Kyle Brew is not one of those podcasts. 77:32 So, if you're interested in getting thinner, going to therapy, starting peptide, setting 77:36 boundaries, taking supplements, making your better getting closure, then I would humbly 77:39 recommend other podcasts. But if you're interested in blackmail, lovebomb, and cloning yourself 77:44 or getting revenge, then we've got a little something-something for a dastardly individual 77:49 like you. Take a listen to some of the incredible advice we've given so far. 77:53 Fake a back injury. Get the spray tan. Up your alcohol consumption. Only women should 77:58 be allowed to have guns. Kill them. Kill them. Kill them. Kill the gun. Listen, 78:02 it's already over. I'm all about lying if it's something that really happened. 78:07 The next time a bear is running at you, you just calmly stop what you're doing, 78:11 you look the bear in the eye, and you say, this isn't you. 78:14 Do not preserve relationships. You don't need them. You only need one thing, and that's the 78:20 Get Worse podcast. Listen to Get Worse with Kyle Pru on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, 78:26 or wherever you get your podcasts. The Big Bets on Campus podcast is sponsored by DraftKings, 78:30 where new customers can turn $5 into $200 in total bonus rewards this football season. 78:35 It doesn't matter where you are, because DraftKings Sports is now available in all 78:39 50 states, bringing the excitement straight to your fingertips. 78:42 From Florida to Texas to California, you'll never miss a beat. 78:46 Follow every moment, every matchup, and every highlight in a seamless experience no matter 78:50 where you're watching, all in one app. 78:52 So if you're new to DraftKings, be sure to sign up with code BBOC, spend $5 and 78:56 get 200 in total rewards. 78:58 That's code BBOC. 79:00 Download the DraftKings Sports app and keep football at your fingertips all season 79:04 long. 79:04 draft Kings, the crown is yours. 79:07 All right, before we get to some trash, 79:08 quarterback injuries, Q's maybe down to their fourth string. 79:11 UMass, now down, their freshman is now out. 79:14 A bunch of UMass's best players might be out too, 79:16 besides their quarterback, and they don't have much depth. 79:19 That's why Buffalo is taking money. 79:21 Sac State, who knows what's going on 79:22 with their quarterback at this point. 79:23 Oregon we talked about, Tennessee we talked about, 79:25 UTEP, we'll see how it goes. 79:26 That actually took Sac State. 79:28 Great. 79:29 That means like... 79:30 No, I mean, he took them on game days 79:31 and outright winner like two a week ago, 79:33 So that's that's like, uh, never take Sac State. 79:36 You did that once. 79:37 You made that mistake. 79:38 Yeah, I paid for that. 79:39 I paid the price. 79:40 Lonergan looks like he's good to go for rockers. 79:42 Mentioned J. 79:42 Cass. He's good to go. 79:43 All right. 79:44 Let's get this in trash. 79:46 Oh, what's that smell? 79:48 It stinks. 79:49 What do you mean? 79:49 This trash, the sweet, sweet trash. 79:53 The trash is a gold mine. 79:55 Gold mine. 79:57 Trash been very good this year. 79:58 Hopefully keep it up. 79:59 I'm looking at this list and it looks like 80:00 you're ready to write your Mac manifesto. 80:02 Ball State against BG. 80:05 Look, BG's looked better the last two weeks. 80:08 They beat Sac State in a backup quarterback, 80:11 and then Miami, Ohio in their third string quarterback 80:13 who can't play. 80:14 And now they're laying the touchdown? 80:17 No. 80:17 Ball State has looked a little better. 80:21 I've played, I liked what I saw from, 80:23 and remember, Ball State played one game 80:24 with their backup quarterback. 80:25 They were healthy last week. 80:26 They should be getting a little healthier 80:28 on defense, I think, this week. 80:30 This BG offense is still miserable. 80:31 Like miserable. They can't be laying a touchdown here give you ball state and then staying in the max central Michigan catching a touchdown 80:38 Against Western Michigan. I trust Drinkle at home revenge from last year 80:42 They should have beat Western Michigan the eventual Mack champs that they did they would have been in the Mack championship 80:47 Western Michigan's offense is horrendous 80:50 Central Michigan has the better offense telling you 80:52 Now they struggle a little bit more against the run Western Michigan is good against the run 80:56 So like match-up wise it's not great, but you give me a touchdown in this game 81:00 It's gonna be lower scoring give me CMU and then finally I make central Michigan lower 81:05 I like it. You want to put central Michigan on the board? That's yeah. Yeah, what's your money much worse against the Russian air against the pass 81:11 Good. I hate to do this, but Colorado one last time. I can't believe you did it 81:16 This is the spot. I have to play it like I make this 15 and a half 81:20 I know you're super on Utah without adjusting for home field and they're all 81:28 Robbins and took them as a like 12 point underdog a few weeks ago, and they got demolished 81:32 I had 13 and a half and 14 in that game against Texas Tech 81:35 They won the box score dude 81:36 I mean like they if they come out Isaac Wilson's gonna start again Isaac Wilson revenge game if he throws five picks whatever 81:41 I'm you're not gonna never gonna cover again 81:43 He throws five picks including one in the end zone for a pick six, but Colorado. I love taking dogs 81:48 Why see value in off of a buy at home who got embarrassed on the road the year before and they got embarrassed by Utah 81:55 last year I think 53 to 7. Utah's defense had issues last week against Kansas. Kansas kept getting 82:02 to the one-yard line and not scoring, and then Utah would go the other way and get to the one-yard 82:06 line and score. That was a much closer game than the final score. I mean, if you had Kansas, 82:10 I am so sorry. But their defense struggled with a lot of like the stuff that Vernon Marion can do 82:15 and maybe Texas, maybe they don't leak the playbook this week. But who is Utah face this 82:20 year. Iowa State, we've seen what their offense has done. Utah State, Arkansas, Idaho, and 82:27 then Kansas is moving the ball on them. Colorado's run defense has been good. Is it good just 82:32 a prime spot for a prime? Give me the buffs plus 15 and a half. Your trash is CMU ball 82:38 state in Colorado. Trust the trash. 82:40 Look, there's nothing you said about Colorado that isn't. I mean, you're spot on. You're 82:45 100% accurate with this. But Utah is just a team you're not fading this year. 82:49 You can't fade Utah this year. 82:52 I just did it. 82:53 Oh, my God. 82:54 You want to go head down? 82:55 We're going to get so many. 82:56 No, because I make it 15. 82:59 First off, I make it 15, and I agree with everything you said. 83:02 But I've already burned my wallet on Colorado. 83:05 I don't know how you have more ammo. 83:06 And I already learned a hard lesson watching Utah have a 83:11 boat race against Arkansas. 83:13 I'm not fading this three-quarterback ship that 83:15 they got going on in the backfield. 83:17 I think Brandon Marion runs a crazy rush offense with the go-go. 83:23 That broke the Iowa State offense, got back within the number down four touchdowns against 83:27 Utah. 83:28 I'll tell you right now, you want to see some offensive personnel, 9.15 p.m., probably on 83:33 some Fox channel, Utah, Colorado. 83:35 This is going to be some of the craziest motion and personnel you've ever seen in 83:40 the college football game. 83:42 Isaac Wilson revenge game, Scobox. 83:43 You are about to enter a world unlike any you've ever seen before 83:51 Where the beautiful the brutal and the brave all meet 84:11 Let's go to or fast San Diego State Fresno 84:13 I'm not right now. I'm like who's playing for San Diego State. I don't know. I got a look later in a week 84:20 Yeah, mom's 84:22 That's when the defense stepped up look both teams bottom 10 offensive rushing success rate at San Diego State is outside 84:28 top 100 in methodical drives, finishing drives, 84:31 EPA, the offense is horrific. 84:34 The market is also trending that way 84:36 and I make it under it, so under 46. 84:38 Woo pig, Sui! 84:40 Absolute dumpster fire, dumpster fire. 84:42 I don't know how we win a game the rest of the year. 84:44 Just blow the program up. 84:45 Give us a death sentence. 84:47 Colin's talking razorback football. 84:50 Colin talking Arkansas, Arkansas, Vandy. 84:54 Who's watching this game besides you? 84:55 Uh, my grandma Vandy is a six point home 85:00 Favourite total 50 to 50 and a half. What's the play turn it off? 85:06 Watch something else. I definitely don't want to have my grandma 85:10 Sad the prime time game which I was out on is that an SEC network? There's an SEC plus network. I think like 85:18 Look Arkansas is winning this game. I've been on it. I think they're gonna be in the work 85:22 I think they're gonna be in the round rob. I cannot tell you 85:24 How poor and and horrific Vanderbilt is especially after watching that full game against Ole Miss last week 85:31 And it's always not for and horrific look look 85:35 I'm not going through any numbers on this game because both these teams are in the cellar. Okay 85:40 There is not a six-point difference between these two teams and that Diego Pavia shit on this field does not create six 85:47 Points of home field value. Okay, so first off 85:51 I think Vanderbilt's more down than Arkansas. 85:53 Arkansas is marginally improving every week. 85:56 I know the offense is just a soft butter knife, 85:59 but it's marginally improving from execution. 86:01 And I think one of these weeks, 86:02 Silverfield is going to get the play calling right with Cramsey on the offense. 86:05 And we're going to have a mistake free game. 86:07 It's coming. 86:08 They are marginally getting better game. 86:10 But they just lost by seven to Tennessee. 86:12 And if Silverfield had a set, 86:15 we might have potentially tied that game. 86:18 So Arkansas is getting better. 86:19 I know nobody can see it. 86:22 I can see it and it's small and it's going to pay off and Vanderbilt's the team. 86:26 And you know what? 86:27 South Carolina is coming up in November. 86:28 There are chances for Arkansas here. 86:31 And by the way, I was texting with my resource in the locker room. 86:36 Morale is still very high. 86:39 I won't say the player. 86:41 There are transfer portal conversations going into the locker room. 86:45 And a lot of the players, this is what I'm trying to take over. 86:48 They want to get paid and if you want to get paid you got to go play and that's the morale in the locker room right now 86:55 So I can see it. No one else can see it 86:58 I can see watch this game with those glasses. Send me those glasses 87:01 They are marginally getting better outside of Chris Marshall like there's finally other options being found by KJ Jackson 87:07 Other than Chris Marshall and to me that's marginally better. Well, I would see official Arkansas colors cardinal red cardinal 87:14 Yeah, I can give you the Hex Desk, but yeah, we were there's Cardinal 87:18 We actually were the Cardinals until like 1906 and some farmers saw a hog run across field and daddy 87:25 What is that? It's a razor back. Literally. That's how we change from the card and saw cardinals to the razor back 87:29 Never do that. Uh, all right before we get out of here. Let's go three and out. Let's hear it gentlemen 87:34 Clear eyes full hearts 87:36 Let's go play some football 87:38 We have three games on Friday night Memphis at Tulane 87:42 Tulane is a seven 87:43 Point home dog total 55 and a half 87:48 Washington three and a half point road dog the Mon Williams likely not gonna play that's crazy 87:54 But there I mean is there often throw offense kind of look better without him 87:56 I don't know. Is this the top of the market for Purdue app state at Coastal Coastal off a very lucky win against Marshall 88:03 They were out game by 300 yards. I think Marshall let him minus six turnover margin 88:08 and App stayed off of a bad loss against ODU. 88:13 ODU, but it was in like a monsoon, 88:15 and you can't take it. 88:16 It was a hilarious game. 88:17 It was three to two in the fourth quarter. 88:19 Malachi Singleton questionable. 88:21 I have, as of right now, 88:23 I have absolutely nothing on front of my legs. 88:25 You got anything? 88:25 I have two lane. 88:27 I mean, I make the game five, 88:28 running back to Mario McClure is on track 88:30 to return for two lane 88:31 and the Memphis strength of schedules 88:32 outside the top 100. 88:34 My other notes were Green Wave have advantages 88:36 an offensive EPA and on special teams where they are 23rd to Memphis is 71st. So there's an avenue 88:44 here for Tulane to get this cover. Will Hall. No, thanks. Yeah, I got nothing on the other two. 88:50 I mean, you should throw it at the trash and official trash bag for Tulane because it's getting 88:54 that bad there. App State. Now, I'd mentioned Malchi Singleton. He's questionable. The 88:58 backup's Henry Hasselbeck. Malchi Singleton last week in that monsoon against ODU. 89:02 He went he finished five of 23 or 72 yards
Community discussion