405. Escalation, Ambiguity, and the Ghost of Katyn

In this episode of Battleground Ukraine, Roger Moorhouse and Saul David analyse a week defined by Russian escalation, psychological warfare, and deep structural fractures behind the frontline.

The Kremlin has intensified its campaign of domestic terror, launching a brutal round of strikes against Kyiv. Among the targets was the newly refurbished Chornobyl Museum—a deeply symbolic attack on historical truth and memory. Russia's deployment of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missile has drawn fierce international condemnation, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas slamming it as "reckless nuclear brinkmanship."

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned US diplomats to evacuate the capital ahead of planned "systematic strikes"—a move the team discusses as classic coercive diplomacy designed to fracture Western support. The hosts also unpack the murky diplomatic fallout surrounding a deadly strike on a dormitory in occupied Starobilsk, a location that carries chilling historical echoes of the 1940 Katyn Massacres.

Despite Russia's aggressive rhetoric, the strategic picture tells a different story. Ukraine’s targeted long-range drone strategy continues to bite, successfully shutting down the massive Syzran oil refinery deep inside Russian territory and shifting battlefield momentum. This pressure is exposing cracks within Moscow itself, as reports emerge of an unprecedented split between "hawks" and "doves" among Russia's elite military analyst class.

Finally, Roger and Saul dive into the listener mailbag to answer your questions on:

Whether Russian electronic jamming is sending Ukrainian drones off-course into civilian buildings.

The legal complexities and political fallout surrounding third-party Russian oil sanctions.

The terrifying reality of Putin's nuclear brinkmanship.

Whether the high-tech, 20-to-1 casualty ratio achieved in Kupiansk can be replicated across the entire front line.

Join the Conversation: If you have a question about the war in Ukraine or any of the conflicts we cover, email us at [email protected]

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Producer: James Hodgson

A Goalhanger Podcast

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