Why Fertility is Collapsing: Shocking Stats with @MoreBirths

https://discord.gg/EGFRjwwS92

In this illuminating episode, Malcolm and Simone Collins sit down with Dan Hess, better known as Morberths on Twitter, to discuss the crucial behavioral and lifestyle factors that correlate with higher and lower fertility rates. Hess, a prolific demographer and data analyst, shares his insights on the impact of marriage, urban density, living arrangements, and sexual history on fertility outcomes.

The conversation begins with an examination of the dramatic rise in the average age at first marriage across Europe and its potential implications for fertility. Hess emphasizes the importance of marriage as a fertility factor, highlighting the significant happiness and wealth gaps between married and unmarried individuals.

The discussion then turns to the role of urban density and housing in shaping fertility patterns. Hess argues that suburban living and lower population density are more conducive to higher fertility rates, while high-rise urban environments tend to suppress reproduction. Malcolm and Simone explore the potential of exurbs and remote work as a solution to this challenge.

Hess also delves into the impact of young adults living with their parents on fertility, noting the stark differences between countries like Spain and Italy, where a large proportion of 25-34-year-olds still reside with their parents, and countries like Sweden, where this practice is far less common.

Finally, the group discusses the relationship between sexual history and fertility, with Hess presenting data suggesting that individuals with fewer lifetime sexual partners tend to have higher fertility rates. Malcolm and Simone offer their perspectives on the underlying factors that may drive this correlation.

Throughout the conversation, Hess showcases his extensive knowledge of demographic trends and data, emphasizing the importance of understanding and addressing the complex web of factors that influence fertility in modern societies.

Dan Hess: , [00:00:00] this is, this is one thing that's really wonderful about my feed is that you can search at more births for whatever topic.

And there's a good chance that I will have written about it.

Simone Collins: Now you are the kind of the, the reference point in encyclopedia. If you need, well, I

Dan Hess: really want to, want to Uh, give 40.

Malcolm Collins: Oh, this is this is fascinating. Yeah. 48 percent of homeschooling households have three or more children

Would you like to know more?

Simone Collins: Hello everybody. Today we are joined by Morberths on Twitter, also known to his more close acquaintances, such as ourselves. And now you, Daniel, we're super excited to have you, Daniel. And today, because you are the foremost person on Twitter, giving really great graphic, heavy, in depth threads on Twitter on demographical apps and prenatalism, we'd love to discuss.

The fertility factors that correlate with higher fertility and lower fertility from a behavioral and lifestyle standpoint. Uh, previously we, we talked about things that were happening on a national level from a [00:01:00] policy and propaganda standpoint, but I think it's really fun to talk about the personal attributes.

So, um, you know, Malcolm and I have talked a lot about Different cultural elements, but really what really stands out to you. And what have you talked about at length on Twitter when it comes to factors that correlate with low or high

Dan Hess: fertility? Uh, yeah. So, um, one of the factors, uh, that that's a really big factor that's not especially talked about is, is marriage.

So, so that's one thing that, that, that's a really big fertility factor. And, um, and so, so part of it, um, is. You know, people are just marrying late. And actually this is a, this is a Twitter that I just put out today, but we, you can see the average age at marriage for, um, let's put it up on the screen here.

Let's see if I can, you know, pull that up one second here.

Simone Collins: What has it gone down from? [00:02:00] I've, cause I feel like when I've watched all these 19 average age at first birth. Yeah. Marriage, marriage, marriage. I thought it used to be around 20, 21 or so. That's what I would guess in like the 1940s through, right.

I'll put it here.

Dan Hess: Yeah. So here we can see the age at marriage in Europe and it's like super high everywhere. Oh,

Malcolm Collins: so for people who are watching this on audio, like it is actually shocking. Like, most of the ages are like 33. 8 in France, 34. 8 in Sweden,

Simone Collins: 31. 9

Malcolm Collins: in the UK in Germany at 31. 2 in Ireland, 31. 9. Like it is wow.

Where'd you get the UK number? I don't see that. Simone.

Simone Collins: I'm sorry. I'm looking at Ireland. Silly

Dan Hess: me. Sorry. Yeah. This, this map doesn't show the UK, but it's, yeah, certainly it's, it's very high in all of Europe and I'm going to, I want to switch to share the lowest one

Simone Collins: we're seeing here is. 24. [00:03:00] 9. Malcolm, you and I married at like 25 and 26.

We're, we're, we were young

Dan Hess: married

Malcolm Collins: people. Yeah. You look at a country like Turkey, it's 25. 2. So we were younger than we would have brought down the average first age in Turkey. Oh. And, uh, yeah,

Dan Hess: that's wild. Yeah. So I, yeah, I want to, you know, actually, uh, share something else that's, I want to share, show this on a world scale so we can see what's going on even, even, even more.

So, so here I didn't realize

Simone Collins: how late it was on average. I think I'm, I'm wondering maybe this has to do with second marriages. If, you know, if they're counting every single marriage that happens, maybe when 70 year olds get remarried after they're widowed,

Dan Hess: here is the world. So here we can see first marriage, first marriage, first marriage.

So you can see how, how Europe stands out as having like these super late marriages. You can see, you can also see that what's the most fertile part of the world. And what's the part of the world that has. Early marriages. Yeah,

Malcolm Collins: [00:04:00] but this is really interesting. So we talk about fertility collapse in Latin America and I think what people would be surprised by here is a good chunk of Latin America has later fertility, uh, later marriages than the United States.

Um, and I, uh, and, and, and most of the developed world has later marriages in the United States. Um, you know, you're looking at a place like, you know, Australia has much later marriages, South Africa, Canada, developed country anymore. Um, Greenland has super late fertility rates, Chile very, very late fertility rates, Brazil late, late, I'm sorry, not late fertility rates, late marriage rates.

So, uh, Brazil and Chile are really unique on this graph and they're, they're in, uh, like 34, 32 range, right?

Dan Hess: So interesting, you know, and, and fertility is dropping all throughout the twenties. So like by the time you're 30, even for a woman, uh, fertility is already like way lower than it was. I mean,

Malcolm Collins: that's like trying to, to have kids with a

Dan Hess: [00:05:00] grandmom.

We have, we have six children, so I'm, I'm, I'm very fortunate. Um, my, uh, You know, when my, when my wife was, uh, third, she was 36 or