Oil Blockade Ended Weeks Ago: The Media Blackout Is Terrifying

Today on Based Camp, Malcolm breaks down a major unreported shift in the Iran conflict: the effective end of Iran’s blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Oil exports from the Gulf have returned to pre-war levels and are set to grow further through expanded pipelines and coastal shipping routes.

The discussion covers how Saudi Arabia and the UAE rerouted flows via land pipelines, the role of smaller coastal tankers, added insurance costs, and why Iran’s strategy backfired by alienating neighbors and eliminating its own leverage. It also examines long-term economic damage to Iran, comparisons to Venezuela and Cuba, and the broader geopolitical fallout.

Episode Transcript

Malcolm Collins:Hello, Simone. I’m excited to be here with you today. Today, we are going to be having a conversation that shows why it’s important that you watch podcasts like this instead of just the mainstream news because there has been a significant change in the state of the Iranian war that is not being reported on much at all. specifically, the blockade of the strait is over. well, not our blockade of Iran’s exports, but their blockade of the rest of the world’s exports. To give you an example of how over it is, prewar, this is roughly in the twelve months before the conflict began, 02/28/2026, Gulf Middle Eastern crude averaged at about 18,000,000 barrels per day. Okay?

Simone Collins:K.

Malcolm Collins:And 83% of its crude was going through Hormuz. Today... Now remember, it was 18,000,000 barrels per day. That was the average. The seven day moving average that we are at right now is 18,300,000 barrels per day coming out of the region, higher than the average before the war. Now you’re probably thinking, but how? Why? How were they able to block it so easily, and how did we get around it apparently so easily?

Simone Collins:Yeah. But they dropped mines in there or something. Right? Yes. I even heard one of the mines exploded recently.

Malcolm Collins:So let’s go over how we’ve globally gotten around this and the geopolitical consequences of us getting around it because what it means for Iran is astonishingly bad. I personally didn’t think this was possible. I didn’t think we would find a way around it this quickly. And we’re building out ways to get around it even more that will be live by 2027. So one of the big ways we got around it is... Remember how 83% used to go through The Gulf? That that means through Hermes? Now it’s only 40%.

Simone Collins:Okay. So it’s still significantly down.

Malcolm Collins:Well, no. It’s it’s up, but it’s that we’re not sending it through The Gulf anymore. We’re not not sending it through the straight anymore.

Simone Collins:We’re sending

Malcolm Collins:it through other pipelines. And those pipelines are actually being expanded at this moment, which is going to bring it so that only around 20% is estimated to still go through the straight.

Simone Collins:Okay. Yes. I I mean, which is inevitable. If if the one path does not work, you have to take another path.

Malcolm Collins:Live in 2027. This shows that Iran indiscriminately attacking ships was the dumbest they could have done. Because they’re

Simone Collins:rendering one of their big points of, leverage obsolete.

Malcolm Collins:The... Yes. Iran’s... Wait. Doesn’t just make their point of leverage obsolete. We didn’t start blocking their oil exports, which is 30% of their government revenue, until they blocked the straight.

Simone Collins:Oh, really? I Yeah. We were Oh, weren’t they subject to significant economic sanctions after a certain point before we just put it to war?

Malcolm Collins:Yeah. They they had sanctions, but they were still shipping oil.

Simone Collins:Oh.

Malcolm Collins:And it was making up a huge chunk of their government, and they don’t run out of, back payments for that oil until around December. But, like Oh,

Simone Collins:so they’re still getting income. That’s crazy.

Malcolm Collins:Yeah. But they’re incredibly boned long term from this. And if you’re like, I thought we were we were barely at war with them. As I pointed out in a recent episode, the HRANA, this is, like, the mainstream. This is... It’s some Israeli whatever mainstream estimate. The United States has killed 17... Sorry. A 700 civilians, since the start of the war. And Iran, by the same organization’s estimates, killed 7,000 civilians. And this is considered... People give really high numbers, like 30,000 or something. I don’t I don’t buy that. Right?

Simone Collins:Is it... I think that includes, like, all the protests that were leading up to Yeah.

Malcolm Collins:Yeah. The war. So we’ve killed... And and note here, even if we go with the Iranian official figure, which is 3,117 civilians that they killed During the crackdowns of people asking The United States to come in and save them That is still almost double the number of civilians The United States has killed since the start of this war. If you know anything about war, that means we’re not really fighting what anyone would think of as a traditional war. We’re... I don’t know. It’s it’s it’s as much of a war as whatever happened in Venezuela was a war, And and a lot of people don’t get that. They don’t get how asymmetrical and weird this war is, nor how badly it’s going for Iran now that we have found a way. And I’ll go into the economics of how we get oil around. It’s really fascinating, actually. But it’s really, really bad long term for Iran because they no longer have any leverage and have pissed off all their friends and are on a lifeline that’s eventually going to dry up. And the question is, what happens when it dries up? And they could become like Cuba. Cuba’s lifeline dried up a while ago, and they are just not really making it right now.

Simone Collins:Press coverage seems to have mostly fizzled out after just multiple headlines amounting to they’re out of power again. Oh, yes. Once again, they’re out of power. And I just... I don’t know what they’re doing. By the way,

Malcolm Collins:if you’re talking about, like, geopolitical victories, that one administration in, like, two years knocked out our three... Venezuela was one of our primary geopolitical enemies long term. Cuba was one of our primary geopolitical enemies long term. Let’s see if we can sink the deal on that. Iran And was one of our primary geopolitical enemies long term, which is going to take forever to... And and it’s... Well, Trump gave them this awesome deal, right, that I had talked about before where they would have gotten a bunch of money to... They... No one’s gonna be offering them that deal anymore.

Simone Collins:That deal deal that he offered to Maduro being like, I... You will be set for life anonymously somewhere.

Malcolm Collins:No. No. Not Maduro. I’m talking about Iran. He’s like, we’re gonna give you... Well, not we. We’re gonna have the the oil power, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etcetera, invest, like, $300,000,000,000 in it.

Simone Collins:Right. Yes. We did a whole podcast on that.

Speaker 17:And even crazier as part of that deal, if they had taken it, they could have, had unrestricted sale of their oil, which they haven’t had in decades and would have made them so, so, so much money. And they blew up the deal to maintain control of her moods, which they don’t have anymore.

Simone Collins:So, yeah, what happened?