Iran's Mass Deconversion: An Atheist Theocracy?

In this episode, we explore the surprising decline of religiosity in Iran, a country known for its religious theocratic state. Only 30.3% of Iranians now believe in life after death, with even fewer adhering to organized religion. We delve into the reasons behind this rapid deconversion, including the impact of state-enforced religion, the role of the internet, and shifts in cultural and family dynamics. We also examine Iran's plummeting fertility rates and the government's failed attempts to reverse this trend with various pronatalist policies. Join us as we discuss the broader implications of these changes for Iran and how they serve as a cautionary tale for other nations.

Malcolm Collins: [00:00:00] Life after death, only 30. 3 percent of people in Iran believe in life after death.. Heaven and hell, 30. 1%. When they asked religion, so to give you an idea of how much disgust they have for organized religion in the country, even if they identify as a Muslim, only 27.

8 percent believe in religion. More broadly. So, like, less than the percent that are Shia, even the state religion, enforcing There are

Simone Collins: people who answered on this survey, I am a Shia Muslim. I don't believe in religion. That happen?

Malcolm Collins: Yes. Maybe because they consider themselves ethnically Shia Muslim, or maybe Yeah, that makes sense.

Simone Collins: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,

Malcolm Collins: yeah,

Simone Collins: yeah. They

Malcolm Collins: just have so much Which I guess goes to

Simone Collins: show, like, the extent to which making the religion the rule Kills the religion.

Malcolm Collins: an overwhelming majority, 90 percent describe themselves as hailing from religious families.

So this happened within a generation. They lost like when you're like, how quickly can we really lose kids that quickly isn't like a, oh, you do this and they control the [00:01:00] country for a few generations. You went from 90 percent coming from a religious family to 27. 8 percent saying that they identify as religious

Would you like to know more?

Malcolm Collins: Hello, Simone. I'm excited to be here with you today. Today's episode. We're going to be talking about two things. One is how Iran has rapidly been losing its rate of religiosity, mass deconversions We're talking like 40, only 40 percent of Iran's population identifies as Muslim now. Oh my gosh. Okay.

So, and this is in a religious theocratic state, then we're going to be talking about their crashing fertility rates. Quite all of the efforts that they've been trying to do to reverse this. Okay. And I want to couch all of this in this idea that people have that if only their religious group controlled the government of the country that they were in, That they would be able to do more to keep their religion alive and this in the United States.

This is an instinct. [00:02:00] I hear so frequently from Catholics and I point out that Catholic majority countries have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. They have some of the quickest deconversion rates in the world. And they're like, well, they're not enforcing their rules strictly enough. If they enforce them even more strictly, it would fix these problems.

And I'm like, well, great counter example is Iran. So Iran is enforcing them more strictly than any of the Catholic countries. And it appears to have an increased level and an increased rate of deconversion because of this. In fact, I will point out That it's not just, they're leaving Islam. Fewer people in Iran believe in God than in the United States.

Simone Collins: Oh my gosh. Okay, so they're not just converting out of the hard culture. They are just Nothing matters anymore. Nihilism.

Malcolm Collins: Oh yeah, and this is, this is, this is concentrated among younger populations as well, so it's only going to increase. And the problem here, and [00:03:00] people get through your head, if you take control of a government and try to force people to follow the tenets of your faith, it causes mass deconverts.

This is the core reason, this inclination to do this by Catholics is the core reason. Why their culture is completely falling apart right now in terms of the areas where it has power, right? Do not try to force your pornography bans. Do not try to force your bans on whatever, like, all of these weird, like, religious bans and everything like that.

And it's like, oh, if we can just ban all of this stuff, we can just ban gay people from getting married, if we can ban you know, it's like, this, Actually causes mass de converts.

Simone Collins: Yeah, I think forcing people, not the right thing, when, when, when leaving means death or social rejection, yes, but forcing it, leaving is catastrophic.

And Iran, if it's public,

Malcolm Collins: it can mean

Simone Collins: death. But you're just not following [00:04:00] the rules because there's a difference.

Malcolm Collins: What?

Simone Collins: There's a difference between deconversion and not following the rules.

Malcolm Collins: In Islam deconvert is considered like really, really bad. I'm pretty sure that you can, you're supposed to be killed if you're a deconvert by Sharia law.

It's not the same as being like a normal atheist or a normal non Muslim. I don't know. Why are people

Simone Collins: responding that they are no longer religious? Because

Malcolm Collins: that's how much they disrespect the space. The state we're going to go over. This is like 40, 000 people in this study. So, you know, not a small population sample either.

As a note here while it is not specifically illegal in Iran to deconvert the way Iranian law works is wherever something isn't specifically in the legal code, judges are allowed to refer to Sharia law. So it is functionally, both illegal and the death penalty to deconvert in Iran.

And I just think that what you're seeing here is a mass knowledge that, yeah, well, nobody really believes that anymore. And I think it's really easy to see why. And I want to get people in this [00:05:00] mindset before we go into the data, because it's going to be very data heavy. Okay. You're a kid, you grew up in a state, right?

Your parents don't feel the need to really in one, teach you how to resist people trying to deconvert you, teach you why your traditions are valuable, teach you why all of the restrictions of your traditions are valuable because the state does that, right? Like this is the thing that the state does.

This is the thing that your local mosque is going to do. This is the thing that you're, so then you get online because you have access to the internet. And you see all of these arguments against all of this, and all of this to you, it doesn't just feel silly, like, it feels bureaucratic to you. The reason why you wear the veil, the reason why you do the X, it's because it's the law of the government.

It's lost any sort of, like, religious magic. It is now just what you have to do. You don't not use porn because you [00:06:00] don't use porn. And that's a thing that you do for God and to be a good person. And you don't do it because it's the law. All right. And then when you're breaking that you're not breaking a religious rule, you're breaking a legal rule and it's much easier to start breaking.

Legal rules from a individual moral perspective than religious rules?

Simone Collins: Yeah, I think it's a lot like the, that study that they did with parents