Hard Mathematical Proof AI Won't Kill Us

An in-depth look at how the Fermi Paradox and the Grabby Alien Hypothesis provide evidence that an AI apocalypse is unlikely. We examine filters to advanced life, terminal utility convergence, and why we may not have encountered aliens yet.

Malcolm: [00:00:00] So basically, no matter which one of these Fermi paradox is true, either it's irrelevant That we are about to invent a paperclip maximizing AI, because we're about to be destroyed by something else, or in a simulation, or... We're definitely not about to invent a paperclip maximizing AI, either because we're really far away from the technology or because almost nobody does that.

That's just not the way AI works, I am so convinced by this argument that it is actually, I used to believe it was like a 20 percent chance we all died because of an AI or maybe even as high as a 50 percent chance, but it was a variable risk as I've explained in other videos.

I now think there's almost a 0 percent chance. I a, a 0 percent chance, assuming we are not about to be killed by a grabby AI somebody else invented Now it does bring up something interesting. If the reason we're not running into aliens is because infinite power and material generation is just incredibly easy, and there's a terminal utility convergence function, then what are the aliens doing in the universe?

Would you like to know more?

Simone: Hi, Malcolm. How are you doing, my [00:01:00] friend?

Malcolm: So today we are going to do an episode, a bit of a preamble for an already filmed interview. So we did two interviews with Robin Hanson, and in one of them we discuss this.

theory. However, I didn't want to off rail the interview too much going into this theory, but I really wanted to nerd out on it with him because he is the person who invented the grabby aliens hypothesis solution to the Fermi paradox. So I hadn't heard

Simone: about grabby aliens before, so I'm glad we're doing this.

This is great.

Malcolm: Yes, so we will use this episode to talk about the Fermi Paradox, the Grabby Alien Hypothesis, and how the Grabby Alien Hypothesis can be used. Through controlling one of the variables, i. e. the assumption that we are about to invent a paperclip maximizer AI that ends up fooming and, killing us all because that would be a grabby alien definitionally.

If you collapse that variable within the equation to [00:02:00] today. Then you can back calculate the probability of creating a paperclip maximizing AI. And, spoiler alert, the probability is almost zero. It basically means it is almost statistically impossible that we are about to create a paperclip maximizing AI.

Unless, with the two big caveats here, something in the universe that would make it irrelevant whether or not we created a paperclip maximizing AI. Is hiding other aliens from us or we are in a simulation, which also would make it irrelevant that we're about to make, create a paperclip maximizing AI, or there is some filter to advanced life developing on a planet that we have already passed through that we don't realize that we have passed through.

So those are the only ways that this isn't the case. But let's go into it because it is, it is really easy.

I just realize that some definitions may help here. We'll get into the gravity alien hypothesis in a second, but the [00:03:00] concept of the paperclip maximizing AI. Is the concept of an AI that is just trying to maximize some simplistic function. So in the concept as it's laid out as a paperclip maximizer, , it would be just make maximum number of paperclips and then it just keeps making paper clips and it starts turning the earth into paper clips and it starts turning people into paper clips.

Now, realistically, if we were to have a paperclip maximizing AI, It would probably look something more like, you know, somebody says.

Process this image, and it just keeps processing the image to like an insane degree, because it was never told when to stop processing the image. And it just turns all the world into energy to process an image. Or something else silly like that. This concept is important to address because there are many. people who at least pass themselves off as intelligent, who believe that we are about to create a paperclip maximizing AI. , that AI is about to, as they call foom, which I mentioned earlier here, which just means rise in intelligence astronomically quickly. Like double his intelligence every [00:04:00] 15 minutes or something. And then wipe out our species.

And after that begin to consume all matter in the

universe

Malcolm: So the Fermi paradox is basically the question of why haven't we seen extraterrestrial life yet? You know, Like, we kind of should have seen it already it's, it's, it's kind of really shocking that we haven't, and I would say that anyone's metaphysical understanding of reality that doesn't take the Fermi Paradox into account is deeply flawed, because based on our understanding Of physics today, our understanding of what our own species intends to do in the next thousand, two thousand years, our understanding of the filters our species has gone through, so we know how hard it was for life to evolve on this planet.

And the answer is, not very from what we can see. So [00:05:00] A lot of people, I'm really, really into, it's one of like my areas of like deep nerddom theories for how the first life could have evolved on earth. So there's a couple things to note. One isn't that important to this, which is life evolved on earth almost as soon as it could.

Now, a person may say, why isn't that this relevant? That would seem to indicate that it is very easy for life to evolve on a planet. Well, and here we have to get into the, the grabby aliens theory. You're dealing with the anthropic principle here. Okay. Can you define the

Simone: anthropic principle?

Malcolm: Yeah, basically what it means.

Is if you're asking, like, look, it looks like Earth is almost a perfect planet for human life to evolve on it. Like, it had liquid water, everything like that, right? Except human life wouldn't have evolved without those things on a planet. A different kind of life would have evolved without those things on it.

Sure, the kind

Simone: that doesn't need water,

Malcolm: etc. Right, so it's, it's, it's not really, if, if, [00:06:00] if life on Earth didn't evolve almost as soon as it could well, then it would have been too late and another alien would have wiped out and colonized this planet. That is what the, the grabby alien theory would say, so that this doesn't really change the probability of this as a filter.

But what we do know about the evolution of life on Earth is there are multiple ways it could have happened. All of which could lead to an evolving, you could either be dealing with like an an RNA world. You could be dealing with citrus acid cycle event. You could be dealing with the, the clay hypothesis.

I actually think the Do you want to expound

Simone: on any of these? I've never heard of the citric acid, acid hypothesis.

Malcolm: So for this stuff, I would say it's not really that relevant to this conversation. And people can dig into these various theories with people who have like done them or just like look up citric acid cycle hypothesis explanation for evolution of life on earth or clay hypothesis to evolution of life on earth or shallow pool hypothesis to evolution of life on [00:07:00] earth or deep sea vent hypothesis to evolution of life on earth.

The point being is it shouldn't actually like, it shouldn't actually be that hard for life to begin to evolve on a plan