Is the crypto cycle already over, or is this just a reset before one last push? Michael Nadeau from The DeFi Report joins Ryan to break down why he went 70% cash ahead of the flash crash, what late-cycle data he’s watching, and the signals that would flip him back risk on. We dig into Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, ETH’s $8–10K scenarios, slowing ETF flows, rising leverage, and whether global liquidity and AI could still drive a melt-up. Michael explains why this cycle has felt muted, what would confirm a top, and how he’s positioning into year-end.
Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report:
https://x.com/JustDeauIt
https://thedefireport.io/
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TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES
0:00 Intro
0:48 Crypto Cycle: Is It Over? Mike's Risk-Off Strategy
https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update
2:15 Flash Crash Insights
3:14 Crypto Investor Profiles
https://thedefireport.io/
5:40 Understanding Market Cycles https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index
7:34 Late Cycle Analysis https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index
12:41 Shifting to Risk Off
https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update
18:54 On-Chain Data Insights https://thedefireport.io/research/where-might-eth-top#scenario-analysis-for-eth
21:47 Stages of the Cycle
https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index
26:12 Wealth Distribution Phase
https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index
28:15 Realized Profits Comparison https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index
32:00 Global Liquidity Discussion
https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1977140156386660654 https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1977498706510487748
33:52 Gold vs. Bitcoin
https://x.com/merlijntrader/status/1978793051062509966
1:01:52 The Shittiest Bull Market Ever
https://x.com/cryptorbion/status/1979614717707489461
1:08:31 What Would Change Mike's Mind?
https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals
1:17:14 Future of the DeFi Report
https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update
https://thedefireport.io/
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