Show full transcript 1:02 why the Trump administration saw this as an urgent issue, 1:06 and to discover what else she sees there 1:09 that most of us are missing. 1:11 Heather, welcome to three takeaways. 1:14 Lynn, it's great to be with you. 1:16 Thank you so much. 1:17 It is my pleasure. 1:19 In 1946, the United States secretly offered 1:24 for Denmark $100 million in gold for Greenland. 1:28 Why did America want it so badly? 1:31 Our views were very much shaped by the Second World War 1:35 and the concern that Nazi Germany obviously occupied Denmark 1:39 but could have occupied Greenland. 1:41 And Greenland sits at a very strategic location 1:44 for German U-boats. 1:47 And so after the Second World War, 1:49 the US saw that as a vulnerability, 1:51 particularly as America's relationship with the Soviet Union was turning rapidly from 1:57 ally to adversary. 2:00 What is it about Greenland's geography that makes it so important to defending the United 2:05 States? 2:06 It's an incredibly important seedling for the United States to reinforce Europe with 2:11 our forces. 2:12 So if there was a security incident in Europe and we would have to rapidly deploy forces 2:17 to Europe. If you didn't control that important seedling, it would be extremely difficult leaving 2:23 our European allies vulnerable. And we created, under the Eisenhower administration, the distant 2:29 early warning or due line. This was a string of early warning radars to detect Soviet missiles 2:36 if they were coming to the United States. And that due line stretched from Alaska, 2:40 across Canada and in Greenland, which is why today America is only based on Greenland 2:46 and its most northerly base is the doofic space base where our very modern early morning radar 2:53 can help detect missiles to protect the United States. So incredibly important to protect North 2:59 America, incredibly important for the United States to be able to enhance collective security 3:06 for our NATO allies in Europe. Heather, why do you think President Trump was so eager to acquire 3:13 Greenland, and what factors do you think made the Trump administration consider Greenland so urgent, so suddenly? 3:22 I would say he viewed this with the mindset of a real estate developer, the largest island in the world, 3:27 that certainly had enormous strategic and economic benefit. 3:31 And I think he saw this as a way to secure his own 3:35 historic legacy as being a president in the 21st century to enlarge the United States. 3:40 The Trump administration now considers the Arctic as part of homeland defense. 3:46 It hadn't been put in that clarity of terms before. 3:49 And that centrality makes our allies even more important to our homeland defense. 3:55 The only way the U.S. can fully protect the homeland is with our Arctic allies in 4:01 Canada through NORAD, our relationship with Denmark, our relationship with the United 4:06 Kingdom, Norway. 4:07 They help keep us safe. 4:09 there are front lines. 4:11 And so that's the great takeaway here. 4:13 Did the U.S. actually gain anything 4:15 from this latest agreement with Greenland and Denmark? 4:20 Well, I think this was an important agreement 4:22 to stabilize this relationship, 4:24 which has been destabilized the last 18 months. 4:28 The agreement also was a reaffirmation 4:32 of how incredible this 1951 bilateral defense agreement 4:37 that has been amended over time. 4:38 And so this agreement just said, we're coming back to that agreement. 4:42 It reaffirmed the centrality of NATO in the protection of North America, the North Atlantic. 4:49 That was very, very important. 4:51 Denmark is probably one of the strongest allies in support of Ukraine. 4:55 They would not allow Russia to have a base on Greenland. 4:58 China was interested in commercial infrastructure in Greenland in 2018 and who stepped forward 5:04 to ensure that didn't happen. 5:05 the Kingdom of Denmark, the United States and others. 5:09 So we can say the adversary wouldn't arrive on Greenland 5:12 even if there's a change in independence. 5:15 But yes, if that makes us feel better 5:17 and we've got that in writing, that's important. 5:19 But it really brings us back to the essence of NATO. 5:24 How much of what Washington wanted was already possible 5:27 under the existing defense agreement? 5:30 100% possible. 5:31 And why is the front line of our Homeland Security, Greenland, and the Arctic? 5:38 The United States has two Arctic approaches. So what we've been talking about is the Atlantic, 5:44 the North Atlantic. There's another approach, the Pacific Arctic. And we didn't even talk about 5:48 Alaska. We put so much attention on Greenland. We need to make sure we have as much attention 5:55 to Chinese and Russian vessels that are going near Alaska and the Pacific Arctic. 5:59 We have two approaches, but we are seeing a 30% increase in Russian submarine activity in the 6:07 Greenland-Island United Kingdom gap, that important sea lane to North America. We are seeing 6:13 where Russian shadow fleet, their tankers, they have intelligence capabilities, they have drone 6:19 capabilities. We're seeing the intensification of Russian hybrid activity across Europe, 6:25 across NATO countries, we are really seeing a highly unstable security environment. 6:32 And this is why Greenland plays a really critical role, the more persistent presence we have 6:37 and observation we can deter Russia's aggressive behavior. 6:42 And that's really because the Arctic, in your words, shortened distances. 6:48 Absolutely. 6:49 I am always asked, why are we talking about the Arctic so much? 6:52 And, you know, during the Cold War, the Arctic was so important because it shortens the distance 6:57 for intercontinental ballistic missiles, for submarines. 7:00 It shortens distances for undersea cables where you can exchange information for shipping 7:05 between Asia and Europe. 7:08 It shortens distances. 7:10 And there's a strong belief that the countries that can ensure that they have freedom 7:15 of navigation, that they have the ability to deter aggression, to monitor missiles. 7:23 They're going to be the ones that can protect their sovereignty and their territorial integrity. 7:28 So it's extremely important. 7:31 The Arctic is going to become even more important to our future security as it becomes a 7:36 much busier place for ships, for satellites, for missiles, for submarines, for undersea 7:42 capabilities as well. 7:43 And the Arctic is important not only for Europe's and America's homeland security, 7:50 but also for Russia's and for China's. 7:54 100%. So Russia is the Arctic superpower with over 53% of the Arctic coastline. 8:02 And the Arctic is so important for Russia's military future, its economic future. 8:07 Russia's nuclear submarines are based in the Russian Arctic. 8:11 Arctic, it sees future oil and gas development, critical minerals, and a maritime route, the 8:16 northern sea route, as critical to Russia's economic future. 8:20 Its economic future is under question right now as it's entered in the fifth year of 8:26 its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 8:28 So the Arctic is very, very important, and you're absolutely right. 8:31 China sees the Arctic in a much longer-term arc. 8:36 It understands the strategic significance, the commanding heights, and it wants to 8:41 make sure it can fully benefit from the abundance 8:43 of resources in the Arctic, whether that's fisheries, 8:47 whether that's critical minerals on the seafloor, 8:49 oil and gas, or to diversify shipping routes. 8:53 Every country is affected by the Arctic. 8:55 It is a global weather maker. 8:58 And so yes, we want to encourage countries 9:00 to collaborate on science, 9:02 but China's science is not all for science. 9:06 And this is where they have a growing icebreaker fleet. 9:09 They are increasingly in America's exclusive economic zone off of Alaska. 9:14 We have to have the icebreakers, the awareness, 9:17 making sure we can track and detect that behavior, particularly in U.S. waters. 9:23 You warned that President Trump's pressure could damage art and cooperation. 9:28 Instead, Denmark, Greenland and their NATO allies have increased their defense commitments. 9:34 How much did his pressure contribute to that change? 9:37 I think it made a massive contribution to that and in some ways that speaks volumes itself 9:45 that it took truly threatening the sovereignty of two of our NATO allies to have them take their 9:52 own security more seriously and government leaders from both countries readily admit 9:57 that they had underinvested in their own Arctic security and they've now made 10:02 clear commitments to increasing that security. NATO also had been very reluctant to really 10:10 engage more fully in the Arctic and now we're seeing strong activity with NATO. It has to 10:16 be a collective security action. So we have to turn this into a moment where we are working 10:22 together in our operable ways. Our NATO allies that they're keeping their eye on that 10:28 threat and not keeping one eye if they're not quite sure how the US is going to behave 10:33 in the future. 10:34 We want to be having everyone focusing on preparing for more activity, we have a lot 10:40 of work to do and we need to rebuild the trust and credibility that was lost because 10:45 we challenged our allies sovereignty. 10:47 Yeah. 10:48 The US has had considerable difficulties operating in our own Arctic territory and 10:55 And a Canadian-led multinational military exercise last year also ran into a number 11:01 of challenges. 11:02 Can you talk about the forbidding conditions in the Arctic? 11:06 I think in some ways the Arctic environment is changing so much and that in fact is the 11:12 greatest challenge. 11:13 So let's start with the shrinking of the polar ice cap. 11:16 One sort of thinks, well, an ice-free Arctic that would be easier to operate 11:20 in. Actually the ice is more dangerous as it thins, as it breaks apart. And this is 11:27 why you do need icebreaker capability, particularly as more shipping activity 11:32 happens in the Arctic on land permafrost though. So this frozen tundra is now 11:38 warming sometimes four times faster than anywhere else on the earth. That makes 11:42 it squishy and muddy. Buildings, runways are cracking that are built 11:47 on the permafrost that makes facilities and runways extremely challenging. It 11:53 makes doing anything difficult. And this is why it's so important that we work 11:58 closely with the indigenous communities that live in the Arctic. They are 12:01 experiencing this transformation in their daily lives. It's changing their 12:05 hunting patterns, their food, their water security, but they also are the 12:10 most knowledgeable of how to work in the shifting environment and how we can 12:16 incorporate them much more not only in the economic activities and prosperity we 12:21 want them to have while they're respecting their culture and their way of 12:25 life but also engaging them in the security conversation because their 12:29 knowledge is absolutely vital and of course their knowledge of science and 12:33 changing environment is so important. And they may be the first to see or to 12:39 warn Europeans or Americans. Yeah they are truly the front lines. If America 12:45 America decided tomorrow that the Arctic was a top national security priority. 12:51 What are the biggest capabilities that we are missing? 12:55 First, I would say science is the foundation of all activity in the Arctic from the military 13:02 understanding the weather patterns, understanding that shifting weather patterns could change 13:07 and could directly affect the lives of those doing a military exercise, what have 13:11 you. Incredibly important on security and economic prosperity. You have to understand 13:16 the science to be able to do development in a sustainable way. So I would say, first, 13:21 you're going to prioritize science. You're not going to take science away. You're going 13:26 to add it and you're going to integrate it as a whole of nation strategy and we need 13:30 more presence, particularly in Alaska along the Alaska coastline and the Bering Strait. 13:37 We're going to see more activity there and we need to make sure we can detect that activity that we can protect 13:44 American territorial waters. We can protect American airspace over Alaska. 13:50 And so that means more facilities as we're talking about in Greenland. Well, we need those in the Aleutian Islands and ADAC. 13:56 We need a deep water port in Nome, Alaska. 13:58 We do not have a deep water port in the American Arctic yet. 14:01 So that's where we're missing and I am hoping that between additional ice 14:06 breakers that are coming, more presence in both Pacific and Atlantic arctic, we 14:11 can make sure that we are prepared for this changing Arctic. So surprising to 14:16 me that the U.S. has lost the ability to build ice breakers and is now 14:20 building them in collaboration with, is it Canada and Finland? Yes. We hear 14:28 about Greenland's minerals. What's actually underneath Greenland and how important or 14:34 valuable is it? The greatest value globally and certainly to the eastern seacoast is the 14:40 Greenland ice sheet which is melting and that directly contributes to sea level rise. 14:46 That is transformative to our weather. So I would say Greenland 14:49 environmentally plays a very, very big role. You're asking now about critical minerals, 14:55 oil and gas. We're not sure. Several years ago, there was some offshore oil and gas 15:00 exploration that didn't quite prove to be what it had been hoped for and it had 15:05 stopped. We know there are quite a few mining licenses to begin to mine critical 15:11 minerals, rare earths in Greenland, and we believe it is a critical mineral 15:15 rare earth rich environment, but there's very limited infrastructure on 15:20 Greenland. In fact, I've heard one statistic, there's only a hundred 15:23 kilometers of roads. So it's not just mining, it's the infrastructure to mine, and then it's not just 15:30 mining the minerals. It's finding locations then for reprocessing, which there's a scarcity of. 15:35 So there is enormous potential. It has to be something that the Greenlandic people 15:40 and governments support. But this is a long horizon, you know, another 10, 15 years we 15:48 could potentially see, but the potential is there. And I think it's certainly worth exploring 15:53 that potential. Is there a paradox that the more countries act in the Arctic alone, the 15:59 less secure that they each become? There is not enough presence, infrastructure for anyone 16:07 nation to do it by itself. So again, if there was a mass casualty incident, the 16:11 search and rescue and oil spill response, we would need the entire community with 16:16 their maritime aircraft, everybody would have to search to do what it would take. 16:21 So absolutely, which is why it's so important is NATO members now substantially increase 16:26 their defense spending and the Arctic that we make sure even though 16:30 trust and credibility has been profoundly shaken, how do we do that on an interoperable basis? 16:35 So as Canada is developing new offshore patrol vessels, can we make sure they work 16:40 interoperable with the U.S. Coast Guard. That interoperability piece is so, so 16:46 important, which is why I am calling for the creation of an Allied Arctic Shield. 16:51 So we think about the shield, shield for the North America. Our allies play an 16:57 incredible role in that shield. 20 years from now, what will we wish we'd done 17:02 in the Arctic today? Build icebreakers, have those dual-use military and 17:09 economic infrastructure ports, we wish we would have done this 15 to 20 years and 17:15 we lost. We lost that time. That's why we can't lose the next decade. So we would 17:19 be so much more prepared for the activity that we're seeing today if we 17:22 would have started 15 years ago. Interesting. Heather, what are the three 17:27 takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today? My first takeaway. 17:34 The Arctic is an essential part of U.S. Homeland Security. My second 17:42 take away is the only way you can adequately defend the homeland in the Arctic is with our allies. 17:50 How we work with those allies, how we're prepared for this future is going to be essential. 17:57 Number three is I want and I hope the American people continue to learn more and read more 18:05 and study and visit the Arctic. Understand the extraordinary transformation that's happening 18:12 environmentally, of course, economically and militarily, and educated, public makes the 18:20 best policy, and we need much more education. 18:24 Heather, this has been great. 18:26 Thank you so much for joining three takeaways today, and thank you also for your service 18:30 and government. 18:32 Thank you, Lynn. 18:33 It's been great talking to you. 18:36 If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts 18:43 or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. 18:46 It really helps get the word out. 18:48 If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com 18:54 where you can also listen to previous episodes. 18:58 You can also follow us on LinkedIn, ex, Instagram, and Facebook. 19:02 book. I'm Lynn Toman and this is 3 Takeaways. Thanks for listening.
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