5% Yields, $100 Oil & Peak Earnings? Victoria Fernandez on What Wall Street Is Missing | The Money Path

Treasury yields are above 5%. Oil is back around $100. The Federal Reserve is talking tough. And Wall Street is beginning to ask whether extraordinary earnings growth can continue. But is the market becoming too pessimistic?

On this episode of The Money Path, host Todd M. Schoenberger, CEO of CrossCheck Media Inc., welcomes back Victoria Fernandez, Chief Market Strategist at Crossmark Global Investments in Houston, for a wide-ranging conversation about the signals investors should be watching now. The Money Path featuring Victor…

Victoria begins with the labor market, arguing that the latest JOLTS data still point to a relatively stable environment: job openings declined, but layoffs and quits haven't deteriorated materially. The bigger question may be what happens next as companies confront rising input costs and potentially tighter profit margins. Victoria says margins will be particularly important during the coming earnings season, especially if companies eventually respond to pressure by reducing headcount. The Money Path featuring Victor…

Then comes the Fed. With markets pricing additional rate increases, Victoria questions whether investors have gone too far. She sees the possibility of another hike but argues that the market's expectation for four hikes may be excessive, suggesting two or three could ultimately prove closer to the mark. The Money Path featuring Victor…

And when it comes to the 10-year Treasury above 5%, Victoria sees opportunity. Crossmark has been buying bonds for some clients, taking profits from equity-market winners and locking in attractive fixed-income yields for longer-term investors. The Money Path featuring Victor…

Todd and Victoria also tackle $100 oil, the pressure higher energy costs could eventually put on consumers and corporate margins, and why persistent energy inflation could make the Fed's job considerably more difficult. Victoria's distinction is critical: temporary oil spikes may be manageable, but oil remaining above $100 for an extended period could begin to bite. The Money Path featuring Victor…

But perhaps the biggest question is earnings.

Victoria notes that recent quarterly earnings growth has exceeded 20% and says expectations are around 28% for the third quarter. The risk is what happens if earnings, margins and economic growth are approaching peak levels. If investors expect 25%–28% earnings growth and receive something below 20%, she believes the market could respond negatively. The Money Path featuring Victor…

The conversation also turns to AI spending and the enormous amount of debt being issued by technology companies. Victor