363. Oreshnik Over Lviv: Winter Strikes and the Shadow Fleet

As Ukraine slips from the international headlines in favour of turmoil in Venezuela and Iran, Roger Moorhouse and Saul David examine a week of "curious" developments and renewed escalation. With temperatures plunging to -14°C, Russia has intensified its campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, launching a rare Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at Lviv—a strike less than 50 miles from the Polish border that the Kremlin frames as a "false flag" retaliation.

The hosts also dive into the escalating maritime war, discussing the capture of the Russian shadow fleet tanker Bella-1 and recent Ukrainian drone strikes on four tankers off Novorossiysk.

They explore the shifting policies in the UK regarding special forces interdictions in the Atlantic and the significant €90bn support package announced by the EU, which survived a tense "EU-first" debate between Paris and Berlin. Finally, they look at Estonia’s bold move to ban hundreds of former Russian soldiers, citing the "non-theoretical" threat of combat-hardened veterans with criminal backgrounds.

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Producer: James Hodgson

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