Every poll showed Paxton leading in the Texas Senate primary — and every poll ended up wrong. Mark called it last episode, and he's back to explain why undecided voters are the key factor that most pollsters keep ignoring.
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In this episode, we cover:
- Was the Texas Senate primary a polling failure or a lesson in reading between the lines? Talarico beat Crockett despite being down in nearly every public poll. We break down why Mark saw it coming.
- Cornyn vs. Paxton: Who wins the runoff, and does a Trump endorsement help or hurt? The Texas Senate runoff sets up a three-month battle between the GOP establishment and the MAGA base. Michael argues a Trump endorsement of Cornyn could paradoxically boost Paxton.
- Byron Donalds leads Florida's governor's race... but is it closer than it looks? A new James Madison Institute poll shows Donalds up 18 points in the GOP primary. We analyze what the undecided numbers reveal and whether Casey DeSantis entering the race could blow the whole thing up.
- What do rapid-fire Iran favorability polls actually measure? Multiple polls dropped within days of Trump's military actions in Iran, and they were surprisingly consistent despite different question framings. We discuss why these results reflect emotional sentiment more than policy opinion, and why the numbers could look completely different a week from now.
- Why do some Trump voters seem to be "forgetting" they voted for Trump? Michael critiques a new article from The Argument that examines panel data showing voters revising who they say they voted for in 2024.
The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.
The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.
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