Episode 1

Welcome to the very first episode of The Polling Alley! In this episode we're diving deep into a debate that's dividing the data world: polls vs prediction markets. Mark and Michael also analyze the government shutdown's effects on the November elections and some interesting finds from our own latest poll.

In this premiere episode, we cover:

• What's the difference between prediction markets and traditional polls? – We break down how prediction markets work compared to conventional polling, examine their accuracy, track record, and explore whether betting odds are the future of election forecasting.

• Did the government shutdown influence the November 2025 off-year elections? – We analyze the polling data on public opinion before and after the shutdown to uncover whether it moved the needle with voters. Mark and Michael share their take as to which races saw the biggest impact, if any.

• Key Takeaways from Overton Insights – We reveal interesting political findings from our own research and what they tell us about emerging trends, some of which you won't find in mainstream coverage.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns and former Director of Polling and Western Region for the Trafalgar Group. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll - November 2025 Overton Insights Poll