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In this special location episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets from ABC Refinery, records on the final day of the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle. Following his keynote address, Nick unpacks the "uncertainty bingo card," explaining why traditional indicators like gold and the US dollar are defying historical correlations.
This episode dives deep into the technical and macroeconomic cross-currents defining 2026, including the shift from "de-dollarisation" to "de-fiatisation", the unprecedented retail silver frenzy in China, and why Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Fed might actually mean more expensive money. Nick also provides exclusive technical updates using Ichimoku Cloud analysis and provides the probabilities for gold and silver’s next major moves.
📆 Recorded on Thursday 19th February 2026 at the RIU Explorers conference, this episode explores:
Market dynamics, price targets, and the role of managed money in these movements
The implications of Fed policy and inflation on precious metals.
🕒 Timestamps:
(00:00) – Introduction: From the floor of the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle.
(01:17) – The Uncertainty Proxy: Why measles outbreaks and the Fed narrative track with gold.
(03:00) – The Warsh Factor: Quantitative tightening and the "belly of the curve."
(05:51) – Breaking Correlations: Analysing gold’s rally alongside high real rates and a strong dollar.
(08:16) – De-fiatisation vs. De-dollarisation: Why China is still accumulating greenbacks.
(12:38) – Silver’s Forgotten Story: Comex inventory shifts and Chinese retail premiums.
(16:55) – Managed Money Data: Identifying "Fast Money" trends in gold and silver.
(21:17) – Technical Analysis: Ichimoku Cloud support levels and Point & Figure upside targets.
(24:00) – Option Market Probabilities: Is a $140 silver price actually on the cards?
(28:09) – The "Big Macro" Indicator: Monitoring the US Net International Investment Position.
🔗 More Resources: