In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he’s long everything not tied to the U.S. Topics covered: The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottoms Why this may be the best macro environment in 40 years The policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollar Positioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assets How Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his process The dollar’s impact on equity and sector leadership Inflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenon Why AI’s economic impact will take longer than expected The probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenarios Fiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repression Why bonds are “a crap place to have your cash” The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equities Lessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders” Timestamps: 00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk 02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets 06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity 08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump 12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline 15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation 20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market’s fragility 26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation 36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities 42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance 47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook 51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity 56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy 01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment 01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking
