Episode 9

Welcome back to The Polling Alley! These front-runners have been leading by double-digits in the polls, but contenders try to catch up as primaries near. We break down three governor's races and whether their campaign strategy seems to hold up. In this episode, we cover:

• Is Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee lead actually collapsing? – Blackburn led John Rose by 53 points and Monty Fritz by 58 points in May. Recent polling has her rivals climbing into the teens, and her decision to play prevent defense could give them an opening. We break down whether Rose's establishment money or Fritz's grassroots online army has a real shot at closing the gap before early voting ends.
• In Florida, will Donalds' Blackburn-esque playbook work? – Byron Donalds holds a 5-point edge on Democrat David Jolly in general election polls, but first he has to win the nomination. James Fishback and Jay Collins are each pulling double digits and could split the anti-Donalds vote. We discuss Fishback's online-first campaign, Collins running on a DeSantis endorsement he doesn't actually have, and why a contested primary could push whoever wins further from the center.
• Wisconsin Democrats can't agree – Francesca Hong is sitting at roughly 75% on prediction markets while the party's moderate lane split between two candidates, one of which who already dropped out then was pulled back in. We analyze what a fractured primary means heading into November.

POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Tennessee GOP primary internal poll, Blackburn - https://www.tennessean.com/story/news... 📊 TN GOP Primary, May 2026 Beacon Poll: https://tennsight.com/polls/may-2026/ 📊 Tennessee poll, Wick - https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/... 🎲 Polymarket odds, Tennessee GOP primary - https://polymarket.com/event/tennesse... 📊 Florida primary poll, Donalds - https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/2079... 🎲 Polymarket odds, Florida GOP primary - https://polymarket.com/event/republic... 📊 Wisconsin head-to-head polling - https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2079... 🎲 Kalshi odds, Wisconsin Democratic primary - https://polymarket.com/event/wisconsi... The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside host and Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on Facebook - @OvertonInsights Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Follow us on Youtube - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com