Silver squeeze, gold’s next move & China’s slowdown

In this week’s episode of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Global Head of Institutional Markets, Nicholas Frappell, dives deep into October’s extraordinary volatility across the precious metals space.

Recorded on Tuesday, 18 November 2025, Frappell unpacks the extreme tightness in the silver market, the drivers behind gold’s sharp drop and powerful rebound, and why China’s deteriorating economic indicators matter enormously for Australia. From negative gamma flows to fixed asset investment, this episode is loaded with actionable insights for traders, investors, and precious-metals followers.

📈 Frappell also examines:

Why silver lease rates briefly exploded to ~200%
How metal flows to COMEX, New York ETFs, and India helped drain London's lending pool
The return of metal to London vaults—53 million oz, the biggest inflow since 2016
Whether December Fed rate cuts are still likely
Gold’s medium- and short-term upside and downside price targets
ETF flows and what limited data we have on positioning
China’s rare –12.2% drop in fixed-asset investment, persistent deflation risks, and slow-motion property crisis
Why China’s troubles matter directly for Australia’s economy

🕒 Timestamps:

(00:00) – Introduction
(00:32) – Recap of a busy conference schedule
(01:14) – Gold goes parabolic… then drops ~US$420: what happened?
(02:24) – Listener question: What caused October’s extreme tightness in silver?
(04:56) – Turning back to gold: analysing the late-October rally
(05:53) – Key support levels: Ichimoku, Fibonacci & volatility drivers
(06:24) – Gold & silver targets: medium- and short-term outlook
(07:54) – Positioning: what we can infer without COT data
(09:15) – ETF flows in gold & silver
(09:48) – China update: investment collapse, deflation & property sector slump
(12:34) – Why China’s malaise matters for Australia
(13:08) – Final thoughts: volatility, US dollar direction & Fed uncertainty
(14:00) – When Frappell will (hopefully!) return to the mic

🔗 More Resources:

Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

📈 Frappell also examines:

Why silver lease rates briefly exploded to ~200%
How metal flows to COMEX, New York ETFs, and India helped drain London's lending pool
The return of metal to London vaults—53 million oz, the biggest inflow since 2016
Whether December Fed rate cuts are still likely
Gold’s medium- and short-term upside and downside price targets
ETF flows and what limited data we have on positioning
China’s rare –12.2% drop in fixed-asset investment, persistent deflation risks, and slow-motion property crisis
Why China’s troubles matter directly for Australia’s economy

🕒 Timestamps:

(00:00) – Introduction
(00:32) – Recap of a busy conference schedule
(01:14) – Gold goes parabolic… then drops ~US$420: what happened?
(02:24) – Listener question: What caused October’s extreme tightness in silver?
(04:56) – Turning back to gold: analysing the late-October rally
(05:53) – Key support levels: Ichimoku, Fibonacci & volatility drivers
(06:24) – Gold & silver targets: medium- and short-term outlook
(07:54) – Positioning: what we can infer without COT data
(09:15) – ETF flows in gold & silver
(09:48) – China update: investment collapse, deflation & property sector slump
(12:34) – Why China’s malaise matters for Australia
(13:08) – Final thoughts: volatility, US dollar direction & Fed uncertainty
(14:00) – When Frappell will (hopefully!) return to the mic

🔗 More Resources:

Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

Silver squeeze, gold’s next move & China’s slowdown

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Silver squeeze, gold’s next move & China’s slowdown

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