The Bulwark Podcast

The pro-Iran war hawks keep crowing about how U.S. military prowess is supposedly striking fear in Beijing and Moscow. But what’s really happening is that Trump is doing exactly what China and Russia hoped he’d do. Beijing has wanted the U.S. out of the Western Pacific and Putin, of course, wants NATO wrecked. Our major allies are scrambling to form new economic and military relationships, and America is likely to be very lonely in the world with only a few stooges to count as friends.

Trump fired Pam Bondi, maybe the most destructive AG in the history of the United States, because she wasn't able to magically and lawlessly jail his political enemies. On Wednesday night, he told Americans that gas prices would naturally go down when he was finished with his war—much like the way he told the country in March 2020 that COVID would just go away. In reality, China may end up in control of the Strait of Hormuz and with freight passage paid with the Chinese Yuan.

The war-induced global oil shock is already pushing consumers and businesses to new pain points because of higher fuel prices. Airlines are cutting back routes and ticket prices have started to spike. Expect road trips to be canceled, lifestyles to change, and more people to work from home. Trump is trying to deflect blame onto Iran and NATO, but the world will focus its rage on him and his war of choice.

Trump has served up so many rationales for why he had to do this war, but helping Iran project even more power in the region was surely not one of the reasons. And yet, here we are. Iran is in control of a good chunk of the global energy supply, and other countries are going to have to beg to get through the Strait of Hormuz.

Thousands of soldiers and Marines have arrived in the Middle East to potentially engage in combat on Iranian soil. Trump has done nothing to make the case for an invasion of Iran, even though he’s got plenty of time to wax rhapsodic about the patios and Corinthian columns on his ballroom project.

In addition to the global energy shock brought on by Trump's war, mortgage rates are surging, and labor costs and prices are rising. And Republicans don't seem to have a plan except to spend more, blame trans kids, and feed Trump's megalomania by allowing him to put his ugly signature on our currency.

For nearly 50 years, since the Ayatollah seized power in Iran and took Americans hostage, the U.S. has known that the regime could single-handedly shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Trump was reportedly warned of this threat, but the failed casino owner blew it off. And now Iran unilaterally controls 20% of the world’s oil supply and an even higher percentage of the fertilizer inventory.

Trump's shamelessness has been his political superpower, but the regime in Tehran is seeing a desperate and panicked man doing the opposite of what he's said about Iran for the past decade. But his supporters are not likely to see the dangerous moment we are in unless or until they feel real economic pain personally.

A war of choice may evolve into a war of necessity because the brains at the White House apparently did not anticipate that Iran—in response to the bombing campaign—would shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which the global economy depends on being open. It's also not a good look for the U.S. to be got by a power like Iran because China is watching.

The man in charge is bluffing, blustering, and trying to manipulate the markets by claiming that the administration is in negotiations with Iran and was holding off on further military strikes. Israel's reaction was to drop more bombs on Iran, and the regime itself used Trump's own lines against him in its response. In any event, Iran has shown it can close the Strait of Hormuz, which is much more of a power move than the degradation of Tehran's missile capacity.

The U.S. is at war with the leading state sponsor of terror, and Donald Trump appointed Markwayne Mullin—a man with no counter-terrorism experience—to help defend the homeland. At the same time, Hegseth is a meathead, and the shoe designer at the top of the FBI is preoccupied with visiting all the places on his bucket list. This is the moment for Democrats to argue that Trump has made the country very vulnerable.

For Talarico, it doesn't really matter whether Cornyn or Paxton wins their runoff battle. Either way, the Texas Democratic Senate candidate says he is running against the billionaire mega-donors and their corrupt system.

POTUS is pretending the laws of supply and demand don't apply when it comes to the price of oil. And his long list of conflicting statements on the Strait of Hormuz is not providing any clarity on whether it will reopen to Western vessels anytime soon. But while Rep. Khanna successfully helped create the Epstein coalition, he says most of his Republican colleagues on the Hill are sticking with Trump's war narrative—though with a little less chest thumping.

A former MAGA influencer who saw the underbelly of the immense power and wealth around this administration says never-Trumpers should show compassion for people who are now feeling betrayed by him—and who are starting to have second thoughts about the cult they joined. Ashley, who is the mother of one of Elon's kids, also tells Tim that an increasing number of MAGA women are waking up to the fact that they've been used as pawns in the movement.

As the Iran war enters its third week, the Trump administration looks like it doesn’t know what it’s doing: It did not bother to consult U.S. allies before the military operation began but it now wants their help to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; POTUS keeps talking about his great victory even with Marine Expeditionary Forces en route; and the disruption in the oil markets is likely to last for months.

The Trump administration is preparing to deploy a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East along with more warships. But that development was not Hegseth’s highest priority at his Pentagon briefing. His first order of business was attacking the media—even before mentioning the six fallen service members who were killed in a plane crash supporting the war in Iran.

We’re raining hellfire down on Iran and American soldiers have died, but that doesn’t stop Trump from hitting the links, doing a little dancing, or holding a revenge rally. His main preoccupation is his daily PR battle over the war—which currently involves arguing that higher gas prices are a good thing. And his ever dutiful backup chorus in Congress is happy to explain how “freedom isn’t free.”

One of the biggest America First fans tells Tim that he thought Trump 2.0 would be different because like-minded, high-level personnel—including the vice president and top DOD staff—were supposed to stop Trump from doing stupid wars like the strategic catastrophe unfolding in and around Iran.

Before the bombs and the missiles started falling on Iran, Trump sent Jared and Witkoff to try to cut a deal with Tehran. But his two favorite emissaries with no expertise in world affairs fundamentally misunderstood the Iranian mindset, and Trump grew impatient. Now, while Israel is likely trying to create a failed state in Iran, the U.S. seems to be looking for the quickest exit.

Unless the administration is keeping some closely-guarded secret about why America went to war against Iran, the only thing officialdom is saying out loud is that Netanyahu wanted us to. And now Trump says he's waiting on Netanyahu to end it. But support for the state of Israel cannot make up for the fact that both the president and the prime minister are not to be trusted.

Republicans and the Supreme Court have put basically no guardrails on Trump, so he started a global war that is costing taxpayers $1 billion a day. He shrugs about soldiers dying, and he lies about the school full of children that Americans likely killed. And he's downright giddy that because he signed off on all the bombing of Iran, he may get to choose the country's new leader.

Not only is Trump failing to provide any clarity on why the United States went to war against Iran, the administration is also sticking to its habit of declaring an emergency based on some arcane legal provision that supposedly gives the executive branch the power to do whatever it wants. It's almost as though the American legal system can justify authoritarianism if a lawyer can dig deep enough. And Anthropic is currently feeling the sting of this monarchical-style power grab.

The starting kit for a unified Democratic Party with the biggest, broadest tent should be calling out the billionaire class that is sabotaging our political system, our healthcare system, and driving up costs. Katz, the young media strategist who helped propel Mamdani to his historic win, says it's not enough for Dems to campaign on just hating Trump. Instead, they should take on Trump for breaking his promises about helping working people and being a peace president.

The facts on the ground and the ludicrous statements speak for themselves: The administration inadequately planned for the execution of this war. That's likely why six service members were killed in an insufficiently protected facility. It's why our embassy in Riyadh was hit with drones. And the administration clearly does not have an exit plan.

Trump cannot enunciate a clear reason for why he's chosen to go to war against Iran, and the administration is not even bothering to coordinate a message that clarifies its objective. While the military campaign appears aimed at regime change, Hegseth denies it is. And instead of speaking directly to Americans, POTUS himself has taken on a Jekyll and Hyde approach to his rationales in a series of private interviews: he's waffled between "freedom," to installing a caretaker regime à la Venezuela, to maybe even revenge.