Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we’ve entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it’s changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather than principal. Main topics covered • The shift from deflation to debasement and what defines this new regime • Why protecting purchasing power is replacing the fear of losing principal • Fiscal policy, deficits, and how politics drive the debasement dynamic • The cyclical vs. secular forces shaping markets today • Labor market analysis and the idea of “malignant stasis” • How bonds fit in a debasement era and when they hedge equities again • Valuations, bubbles, and why Warren sees room for the S&P 500 to rise further • Gold as the key debasement asset and how to manage the trend • Portfolio construction in a 60/40-is-dead world • AI, productivity, and the longer-term implications for growth and inflation • What could ultimately break the debasement regime Timestamps 00:00 Debasement vs. deflation and the new investor mindset 07:40 Fiscal deficits, policy shortcuts, and the debasement channel 10:25 Reacceleration or illusion: the cyclical economic outlook 16:42 The labor market’s “malignant stasis” and what it signals 21:17 How Warren values bonds and equities in this environment 29:34 Bond vigilantes and the likelihood of a true bond revolt 34:00 Valuations, bubbles, and the path to S&P 7,000 38:27 Why small caps remain a short against large caps 41:37 Value stocks, energy, and timing hard asset rotations 45:08 Gold’s breakout and how to manage the position 50:00 Portfolio construction in a debasement era 54:32 AI’s potential to reshape productivity and demographics 57:13 What could end the debasement regime 59:46 Managing risk with technicals and conviction with fundamentals
