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#317 Chris Whalen: Divided Fed, Home Prices Falling, Bank Earnings Up In 2026 & Private Equity Crisis Ahead?
The Julia La Roche Show•byJulia La Roche

#317 Chris Whalen: Divided Fed, Home Prices Falling, Bank Earnings Up In 2026 & Private Equity Crisis Ahead?

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Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down the latest FOMC meeting, revealing a divided Fed with no clear consensus on future rate cuts. He predicts a home price correction coming and also warns of a brewing crisis in private equity, where 15-20% of companies are insolvent and relying on payment-in-kind structures. Whalen also discusses JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance this week, the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (and whether it's QE by another name), and explains why the commercial real estate market remains a major risk. He expects higher bank earnings next year despite hidden dangers in lending to non-depository financial institutions, and shares his skeptical view on stablecoins and AI infrastructure spending. Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen 00:49 FOMC meeting recap 04:03 Inflation as the #1 issue for Americans 05:13 Home price correction coming 06:03 Commercial real estate crisis deepening 07:25 Fed's Reserve Management Purchases explained 09:22 Fed managing liquidity into year-end 11:35 JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance 14:33 NDFIs: Lending reminiscent of 1920s practices 15:45 Private equity insolvency crisis? (15-20% insolvent) 16:51 Deflationary risk from forced asset sales 22:45 Private credit hidden risk 23:53 2026 outlook 24:24 Ginnie Mae vs Fannie/Freddie liquidity problem 26:28 Do stablecoins make sense? 27:56 Oracle CDS spiking and AI infrastructure spending 30:27 Viewer question: Fed control over mortgage rates 33:33 Viewer question: Manufacturing renaissance under Trump? 34:57 Viewer question: Are 10-year treasuries a good investment now? 36:16 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen
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Episode Playlist

25 Episodes
#317 Chris Whalen: Divided Fed, Home Prices Falling, Bank Earnings Up In 2026 & Private Equity Crisis Ahead?
Dec 13, 2025•—

#317 Chris Whalen: Divided Fed, Home Prices Falling, Bank Earnings Up In 2026 & Private Equity Crisis Ahead?

#316 Melody Wright, Who Drove 10,000 Miles Across America Observing Housing Conditions, Warns Why We Could See a 38% Correction In Home Prices
Dec 12, 2025•—

#316 Melody Wright, Who Drove 10,000 Miles Across America Observing Housing Conditions, Warns Why We Could See a 38% Correction In Home Prices

#315 Danielle DiMartino Booth Calls Out Fed Powell's Lies In Open Letter To The FOMC - 'Somebody Needed to Say Bullshit, And I Said Bullshit'
Dec 11, 2025•—

#315 Danielle DiMartino Booth Calls Out Fed Powell's Lies In Open Letter To The FOMC - 'Somebody Needed to Say Bullshit, And I Said Bullshit'

#314 Chris Whalen: The Case For Kevin Hassett For Fed Chair, No Crisis On Horizon & Why Rate Cuts Are Coming
Dec 6, 2025•—

#314 Chris Whalen: The Case For Kevin Hassett For Fed Chair, No Crisis On Horizon & Why Rate Cuts Are Coming

#313 Hugh Hendry On Preparing For The Dawn Of Chaos
Dec 5, 2025•—

#313 Hugh Hendry On Preparing For The Dawn Of Chaos

#312 Dr. Mark Thornton: America's On-Ramp to Hyperinflation and Why It's Still Early in the Bull Market for Gold & Silver
Dec 2, 2025•—

#312 Dr. Mark Thornton: America's On-Ramp to Hyperinflation and Why It's Still Early in the Bull Market for Gold & Silver

#311 Steve Hanke: Money Supply Acceleration Could Reignite Asset Bubbles and Inflation
Nov 26, 2025•—

#311 Steve Hanke: Money Supply Acceleration Could Reignite Asset Bubbles and Inflation

#310 Larry McDonald: A Credit Crisis Has Already Started 'No Question' And The Great Rotation Ahead That's Creating Opportunities In Beaten Down Stocks
Nov 24, 2025•—

#310 Larry McDonald: A Credit Crisis Has Already Started 'No Question' And The Great Rotation Ahead That's Creating Opportunities In Beaten Down Stocks

#309 Chris Whalen Warns of Year-End Liquidity Crunch
Nov 22, 2025•—

#309 Chris Whalen Warns of Year-End Liquidity Crunch

#308 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Risks Repeating December 2018 Liquidity Crisis With Rate Hold
Nov 20, 2025•—

#308 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Risks Repeating December 2018 Liquidity Crisis With Rate Hold

#307 Brian Hirschmann: Gold to Double From Here In Next Crisis, Most Dangerous Time in Financial History
Nov 18, 2025•—

#307 Brian Hirschmann: Gold to Double From Here In Next Crisis, Most Dangerous Time in Financial History

#306 Chris Whalen: Markets Running Out of Buyers, Fed Flying Blind & Setting Up for 2018-Style Repo Crisis
Nov 15, 2025•—

#306 Chris Whalen: Markets Running Out of Buyers, Fed Flying Blind & Setting Up for 2018-Style Repo Crisis

#305 James Lavish: The TGA — The Most Important Macro Concept Right Now That Most People Are Missing
Nov 13, 2025•—

#305 James Lavish: The TGA — The Most Important Macro Concept Right Now That Most People Are Missing

#304 Ed Dowd: We're Already in a Recession, "One More Pump Then It's Over" for Stocks, Oil to $30, China Facing Crisis, Deflation Scare, & Gold to $10K by 2030
Nov 10, 2025•—

#304 Ed Dowd: We're Already in a Recession, "One More Pump Then It's Over" for Stocks, Oil to $30, China Facing Crisis, Deflation Scare, & Gold to $10K by 2030

#303 Chris Whalen: Stocks Running Out of Buyers, NYC's Future Under Mamdani & The Case for Gold
Nov 8, 2025•—

#303 Chris Whalen: Stocks Running Out of Buyers, NYC's Future Under Mamdani & The Case for Gold

#302 Whitney Tilson: The Hedge Fund Manager Who Ran Against Mamdani on the "Trojan Horse" Mayor, Why NYC Will Thrive Anyway, Riding This Bull Market & His Top Stock Picks and "Stinky Six" to Avoid
Nov 6, 2025•—

#302 Whitney Tilson: The Hedge Fund Manager Who Ran Against Mamdani on the "Trojan Horse" Mayor, Why NYC Will Thrive Anyway, Riding This Bull Market & His Top Stock Picks and "Stinky Six" to Avoid

#301 Dr. Gary Shilling: Labor Markets Weakening, Recession Concerns & Why Markets May Wake Up Soon
Nov 1, 2025•—

#301 Dr. Gary Shilling: Labor Markets Weakening, Recession Concerns & Why Markets May Wake Up Soon

#300 Danielle DiMartino Booth: "Something Else Is Going On" at the Fed - December Rate Cut in Doubt Despite Weakening Labor Data and Worker Struggles
Oct 30, 2025•—

#300 Danielle DiMartino Booth: "Something Else Is Going On" at the Fed - December Rate Cut in Doubt Despite Weakening Labor Data and Worker Struggles

#299 Michael Pento: Market Warning on Three Record Bubbles, Why the Fed Can't Save Us & Why He's Net Long (For Now)
Oct 28, 2025•—

#299 Michael Pento: Market Warning on Three Record Bubbles, Why the Fed Can't Save Us & Why He's Net Long (For Now)

#298 'Quoth The Raven' Chris Irons: We Are Completely Off The Rails In Unprecedented Territory
Oct 23, 2025•—

#298 'Quoth The Raven' Chris Irons: We Are Completely Off The Rails In Unprecedented Territory

#297 Jim Bianco: Markets at All-Time Highs - So Why Is the Fed Cutting Rates?
Oct 21, 2025•—

#297 Jim Bianco: Markets at All-Time Highs - So Why Is the Fed Cutting Rates?

#296 David Woo on the Macro Trade Everyone's Missing: What the US-China Trade War Is Really About
Oct 18, 2025•—

#296 David Woo on the Macro Trade Everyone's Missing: What the US-China Trade War Is Really About

#295 Lawrence Lepard: Get Ready for The Big Print as the Debasement Trade Goes Mainstream
Oct 16, 2025•—

#295 Lawrence Lepard: Get Ready for The Big Print as the Debasement Trade Goes Mainstream

#294 Tommy Thornton: "I Definitely Think We're at a Blow-Off Top" — Market Extremes and What's Next
Oct 14, 2025•—

#294 Tommy Thornton: "I Definitely Think We're at a Blow-Off Top" — Market Extremes and What's Next

#293 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Quietly Reclassified $300B In Loans With No Comment - Is This Systemic?
Oct 9, 2025•—

#293 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Quietly Reclassified $300B In Loans With No Comment - Is This Systemic?

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