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Erich Schaffer critiques the “super greenhouse effect” and argues that tropical outgoing longwave radiation stays flat mainly because tropospheric temperature is sluggish relative to surface temperature, not because water vapor amplifies greenhouse trapping. He says regional and seasonal proxies for water vapor feedback are invalid (citing admissions by Ramanathan/Inamdar and Dessler et al.) and claims interannual proxy results are distorted by aspect-ratio choices and improper OLS regression, advocating TLS or rotated-benchmark methods. Reanalyzing published plots (Spencer, Lindzen-Choi, Chung, Andy May), he concludes water vapor plus lapse rate implies strong negative feedback and low ECS (~1 K). He also alleges data “fudging” and broader scientific incompetence.
00:00 Super Greenhouse Effect
02:20 OLR Calculations Explained
03:28 Troposphere Sluggishness
05:32 Ramanathan Admission
10:23 Feedback Breakdown Math
12:37 Two Proxies Debunked
14:05 Revisiting Interannual Proxy
16:02 Bad Regression Plotting
17:16 Aspect Ratio Distortion
23:45 OLS vs TLS Regression
30:53 Negative Feedback Emerges
33:22 Spencer Regression Mystery
37:45 Lindzen Choi Critique
41:03 Fixing Lindzen Plot
51:17 Recent Andy May Example
53:21 Rotate Plot Method
55:19 Benchmark Slope Trick
57:38 Questionable Outliers
01:01:26 Proxies Fall Apart
01:02:22 Lapse Rate Physics
01:05:45 Tropical Hotspot Feedback
01:11:10 AR6 Codependency Critique
01:14:24 MODTRAN Water Vapor Test
01:19:44 Emission Altitudes Explained
01:25:22 Net Feedback and ECS
01:27:17 Blunders and Sociology
01:40:54 Q&A and Takeaway
01:44:44 Bonus Coal Math Error
01:47:42 Wrap Up
Erich Schaffer: “Water Vapor Feedback, Part One”: https://youtu.be/2O4mOf9gk-s
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