Episode 12

Wisconsin just delivered another big polling miss. Mark and Olivia sit down and discuss how David Crowley pulled off an upset in the Democratic primary for Governor, what the miss says about polling in contested primaries, and why a new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead in New York starting to narrow.

In this episode, we cover:

- How did every Wisconsin poll get it so wrong? – Francesca Hong led primary polls by more than 20 points and then lost to David Crowley by less than a point. We break down what went wrong with the polling, how it compares to Michigan's Senate primary miss two weeks earlier, and why Mark pushes back on the idea that prediction markets deserve the blame.

- How the Minnesota Gubernatorial primary compares to Michigan and Wisconsin? Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic nomination for governor while former NFL sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya took the Republican side. We discuss why labels like "moderate" and "far-left" are getting harder to apply with any precision.

- Is New York's governor race actually competitive? A new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead over her Republican challenger narrowing to 10 points. We explain why Mark calls it "fool's gold" for Republicans and what would actually need to happen for New York to be in play.

SHOW NOTES:

00:00 - Coming up: a huge Wisconsin polling miss and a shrinking Hochul lead in New York 00:35 - David Crowley's shock win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin 03:00 - Comparing Wisconsin's polling miss to Michigan's Senate primary two weeks earlier 05:54 - The betting markets flip overnight as votes come in 06:36 - Mark defends prediction markets against the "it's not real" critics 09:26 - Looking a the latest Crowley vs. Tiffany poll 11:12 - Minnesota's primary: Flanagan wins for the Democrats, Tafoya wins for the GOP 11:48 - Why "moderate" and "far-left" labels don't mean much anymore 13:43 - New Siena poll: Hochul's lead narrows to 10 points in New York 14:04 - Why Mark calls a competitive New York race "fool's gold" POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Siena College poll, New York gubernatorial race: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/12/siena-hochul-has-10-point-lead-over-blakeman-in-first-poll-of-likely-voters-01033560 📊 General election poll, Wisconsin governor's race (Crowley +3): https://www.pollsmax.com/governor/wisconsin/ 🎲 Kalshi, Wisconsin governor's race: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartywi/wisconsin-governor/govpartywi-26 The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook- @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com