The average home price in Canada has officially dropped 18% since the 2022 peak—but that’s only half the story. In this week’s episode, we unpack April 2025’s national real estate data, and explore a far more revealing trend: What prices looked like 5 years ago versus today. Because while home values are down nearly 20% from peak levels, they’re still up 31% over 5 years. We also take a closer look at the man now in charge of Canadian housing—former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, newly appointed as Canada’s Housing Minister. His stance? Home prices don’t need to go down—instead, he’s promising more supply and more affordability. But how do you make homes more affordable without lowering their price? It’s a nearly impossible challenge—and we’ll explain why it may never happen, especially when the majority of voters, politicians, and Canada’s wealthiest citizens are all homeowners with a vested interest in protecting property values. Trudeau said it last year, and Robertson is echoing the sentiment again today: “Housing needs to retain its value.” We’ll show you a possible model for government-built housing at cost—no developer profit, reduced DCCs, and resell restrictions to inflation-only increases—but question if that kind of execution is realistic in today’s bureaucratic system. Meanwhile, the labour market is softening. Canada’s unemployment rate climbed to 6.9%, the highest in 8 years outside of COVID. BC saw a slight increase to 6.2%, even as job creation remained steady. Wage growth continues, but a weakening economy and global trade volatility (especially with the US tariffs) may push the Bank of Canada toward another rate cut. The presale market continues to unravel. Boffo Developments just cancelled their 1,200-unit Burnaby project “Bassano” after selling only 44 of the first 318 units in 6 months. They’ve returned deposits and hit pause—indefinitely. Even Vancouver’s largest presale marketing firm, Rennie, has laid off 25% of staff, with insiders predicting the market won’t stabilize for at least two more years. On the rental side, Toronto saw its first uptick in rents in over a year, with 1-bed unfurnished units rising $22 to $2,148/month in May. But that’s still well below last year’s levels. Alberta rents are sliding too, with Calgary down 7% and Edmonton down 6% in the past 6 months. Lastly, let’s talk about the Renewal Cliff Myth. The Bank of Canada’s latest Financial Stability Report shows that rising mortgage payments won’t be nearly as painful as expected. Thanks to moderating rate expectations, payment increases on renewal will be 4–5 points lower than forecast—which means a much softer landing for borrowers than many feared. So, are we at the bottom of the market? The CREA’s national data shows home sales in April were virtually flat month-over-month, suggesting the 2025 sales slump may be stabilizing. But prices in BC and Ontario—Canada’s two biggest markets—continue to drag the national average down. And until there's a true shift in supply, policy, or buyer confidence, expect more of the same in the months ahead. Drop your thoughts in the comments—Is this the bottom? Will the new Housing Minister make a difference? Or is Canada’s real estate market in for more pain ahead? _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834
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