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Paul Burgess presents updates to his Burgess Oceanic Solar CO2 index, claiming it precisely matches satellite temperatures from 1982–2025 without changing its fixed formula, including UAH v6.1 and final 2024–2025 data despite a record-low PDO. He says the index is not a forecasting model and implies ECS is 1°C, with ~25% warming from CO2 and ~22–23% from human CO2 after outgassing. A second paper argues oceans drive low-cloud changes (1–3 year lag), with ~2% cloud decline explaining warming, challenging IPCC positive feedbacks. He previews an extension back to 1900 with ~0.96 correlation using a UHI adjustment (Connolly 2021) and invites critique by email.
00:00 Paul Burgess Returns: Introducing the Oceanic Solar CO₂ Index Update
00:24 How the Index Matches Satellite Temps (and Why That’s Unusual)
01:02 No Curve-Fitting: Validation, Critiques, and Why It’s Public
02:19 Completing 2024–2025 + Switching UAH v6.0 to v6.1
03:42 Index vs Model: Fixed Formula, Inputs, and What It Can (and Can’t) Forecast
05:01 CO₂ Contribution & ECS = 1°C: What the Index Implies
07:01 Paper #1 Results: Record-Low PDO Stress Test and Fit Metrics
11:43 From Statistics to Physics: Paper #2 on Oceans, Clouds, and Sunlight
13:03 Clouds as Earth’s Thermostat: The ~2% Low-Cloud Change Claim
15:58 Cloud Layers & Evidence: Low Clouds Drive the Signal
17:58 IPCC Feedback Story Explained (and Critiqued)
21:31 Chicken-and-Egg Problem: Ocean–Cloud Coupling and the 1–3 Year Lag
22:00 Paper #3 Teaser: Testing Water Vapor, Albedo, and Cloud Feedbacks
27:21 Key Takeaways: Albedo/Ice Changes Follow Warming + Better Cloud Observations
28:19 Cloud Cover vs. Shortwave Radiation: What the Satellite Data Shows
28:59 Takeaway #3: Low Clouds as an Ocean-Driven “Sunshade” (Not a Warming Amplifier)
29:37 Four Key Lessons: Ocean Leads Clouds, and the Radiative Effect Matches
30:57 Implications for Climate Sensitivity: Why Models May Overstate CO₂ Feedbacks
32:07 How to Critique the Framework: Falsification Tests and Evidence Chain
34:57 Extending the BOI Back to 1900: Data Limits, UHI Adjustments, and Out-of-Sample Logic
36:12 Sneak Peek Results: BOI 1900–2025 and the 0.96 Correlation Claim
40:23 Q&A: How the BOI Coefficients Were Built (Covariance Fitting, Weights, Inputs)
43:51 Testing and Next Steps: Volcano Signals, Ocean Mechanisms, and Future Projections
47:02 Forecast vs. IPCC + Wrap-Up: Cooling Possibility, Politics, and Contact Info
Email: [email protected]
Explaining Every Temperature Change from 1983 to 2025 - My Most Important Work Ever: https://substack.com/home/post/p-182701114
Linking Ocean Heat, Low Clouds, and Sunlight In Burgess Oceanic index: https://paulburgess3.substack.com/p/linking-ocean-heat-low-clouds-and
Testing Water Vapour, Albedo and Cloud Feedback with the Burgess Oceanic Index: https://paulburgess3.substack.com/p/testing-water-vapour-albedo-and-cloud
Climate Realism by Paul Burgess: https://www.youtube.com/@ClimateRealism
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1