Paul Ashworth: ‘Forecasting Is Difficult at the Best of Times, and This Is not the Best of Times’

Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I’m Dan Lefkovitz, strategist for Morningstar Indexes. Our guest this week is Dr. Paul Ashworth. Paul serves as Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics. He joined the London-based research firm in 2001 from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research after taking degrees in economics and mathematics at Strathclyde and Warwick in the United Kingdom and completing a Ph.D. in monetary policy. In 2010, Paul was named Wall Street Journal Forecaster of the Year.

Background

Bio

Capital Economics

“Ashworth Tops Economy Survey,” by Justin Lahart, wsj.com, Feb. 7, 2011.

Tariffs, Trade, and Inflation

“Trump Tariffs Get to Stay in Place for Now. What Happens Next?” by Peter Hoskins and Yang Tian, bbc.com, May 30, 2025.

“Economists Welcome U.S.-U.K. Agreement for Signal Rather Than Substance,” by Harriet Torry, wsj.com, May 8, 2025.

“This Economist Thinks the Tariff Pause Could Be Permanent,” by Hannah Erin Lang, wsj.com, April 9, 2025.

“Consumer Sentiment Darkens Further With Inflation Worries Rising,” by Chao Deng, wsj.com, May 16, 2025.

Other

“Why Trump Decided Not to Try to Fire Jerome Powell,” by Brian Schwartz, Josh Dawsey, and Nick Timiraos, wsj.com, April 23, 2025.

“The Weekly Briefing: AI’s Productivity Boom, Central Bank Rhetoric vs Reality, Recession Risk and More,” A Capital Economics podcast, Sept. 22, 2023.

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