Gold dips, investors hold steady and a possible grey swan event

Today we discuss gold’s recent dip to US$1,923, how investor interest is neither bullish nor bearish and we take a deep look at past exits from yield curve control and what pitfalls the Bank of Japan may face if they try to normalise policy.

PODCAST INFO:

• ABC Refinery website: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast⁠⁠⁠
• Apple Podcasts: ⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488⁠⁠⁠
• Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb⁠⁠⁠
• RSS: ⁠⁠⁠https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss⁠⁠⁠
• Nick Frappell: ⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/nick_frappell⁠⁠⁠
• Shae Russell: ⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/shaearussell⁠

OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

(1:00) – Nick warned of gold's dip to US$1,923 last podcast

(2:39) – Spot gold hasn’t been too reactive to Russian events, though it may have provided support

(4:57) – Technical positioning

(6:24) – Short term bearish, long term bullish

(8:15) – Key Fibonacci level could provide support

(10:59) – Lessons from yield curve control exits

(12:57) – The Bank of Japan is on track for the good kind of inflation

(14:06) – BoJ would be aware of potential consequences after nine years of policy

(16:58) – US implemented YCC from 1942 to 1951

(19:01) – Reserve Bank of Australia’s exit tarnished its credibility

(21:58) – BoJ only central bank in the world in possession of every 2nd government bond issued

(23:11) – The prize of normalisation versus the risks of spillover effects

(24:02) – A grey swan event…and what is the most pressing risk