In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Steve Gorelik from Firebird Management for a deep dive into Molina Healthcare (ticker: MOH). Together, they explore the sharp drop in Molina's stock despite its long-standing compounder reputation. Steve outlines how Molina operates as a low-cost Medicaid-focused managed care organization, making it uniquely resilient amid rising medical costs and regulatory challenges. They discuss Molina’s competitive advantages, risks tied to healthcare policy, redetermination effects, and its strategic M&A playbook. Tune in to understand why Steve believes Molina remains undervalued and poised to outperform its peers—even as the broader Medicaid sector stumbles. ___________________________________________________________ [00:00:00] Intro and sponsor mention [00:02:25] What is Molina Healthcare? [00:05:31] Medicaid model and revenue growth [00:06:25] Molina stock chart and July crash [00:07:13] Industry-wide margin compression [00:11:28] Why Steve sees alpha in Molina [00:13:29] ROE vs. cost structure explained [00:15:04] Admin efficiency as competitive edge [00:17:04] Molina’s playbook and cost culture [00:20:16] Medicaid redetermination impact [00:24:07] Market share gains amid member losses [00:26:26] What's driving cost inflation now [00:28:44] Will premiums rise to match costs? [00:30:26] Regulatory risks in Medicaid [00:32:19] Medicaid vs. private cost efficiency [00:33:54] Denials, approvals, and outcomes [00:37:50] Molina’s denials as cost control [00:40:42] Tender process and doctor networks [00:41:43] What keeps Steve up at night [00:44:41] Acquisitions: model and pipeline [00:47:18] M&A parallels to John Malone [00:48:19] CEO incentives and share ownership [00:50:48] Share buybacks and capital returns [00:51:19] Could Molina be acquired? [00:52:57] Long-term compounding vs. exit [00:53:28] Scooby-Doo investing explained [00:54:23] Wrapping up the conversation Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
