Pete Buttigieg and JD Vance are leading the primary fields in Overton Insights' latest national poll. This is a special episode breaking down the March 2026 Overton Insights national poll, from presidential primary matchups to findings about unpopular political commentators and what voters think about a military draft.
In this episode, we cover:
- Buttigieg leads, but can he actually win? Pete Buttigieg tops a crowded Democratic primary field at 16%, two points ahead of "Undecided" and three points ahead of Gavin Newsom. We break down why his lead is almost entirely a function of a fractured field, what receiving zero percent of the Black vote means for his ceiling, and why Kamala Harris at nine percent — tied with Bernie Sanders — may signal she's done before she starts.
- JD Vance leads the Republican primary, but trails behind Rubio in head-to-head ballot test. Vance tops a crowded GOP field, but loses by six points in a head-to-head against Marco Rubio. We analyze what's driving Vance's decline, why Rubio's bipartisan appeal may make him more electable, and whether Ron DeSantis is actually more viable than his last campaign suggests.
- Hasan Piker, Candace Owens, and the name ID reality check. Our poll tested favorability on a range of political figures from Spencer Pratt to Ben Shapiro to Erica Kirk. The crosstab that broke X? Forty-two percent of people who still live with their parents view Hassan Piker favorably, one of the only groups with a net positive. We discuss what name ID data tells us about the echo chamber problem in political media.
- Military draft, sports betting, and independent voter drift. We found that 66% of Americans oppose a Trump-implemented military draft, though Republicans split nearly 50-50 when Trump's name is attached. We also cover sports betting sentiment (47% oppose legalization in their state) and look at how independents are tracking much closer to Democrats than Republicans in this poll.
The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Director of Polling and founder of the Beacon Poll and is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.
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Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll crosstabs - March 2026 Overton Insights National Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/overton-insights-poll-may-2026/
